【冠通期货研究报告】延续震荡偏弱：纯碱日报-20260121

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report In the short term, although sentiment is slightly supported by macro news, considering the intensifying industrial contradiction of supply surplus, it is advisable to adopt the strategy of shorting on rebounds. Attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro policies, and market sentiment changes in the future [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures market: The main contract of soda ash opened lower and moved lower, showing a weak and volatile trend during the day. The three tracks of the 120 - minute Bollinger Bands opened downward, indicating a short - term weak and volatile signal. The intraday pressure was near the 20 - day moving average of the daily line, and the support was near the lower track of the Bollinger Bands. The trading volume decreased by 127,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 19,651 lots. The intraday high was 1179, the low was 1161, and the closing price was 1163, down 19 yuan/ton (1.61% decline) compared with the previous settlement price [1]. - Spot market: It showed a stable and slightly volatile trend. The enterprise equipment had minor adjustments, Jiangsu Debang resumed operation, production increased, and the supply remained at a high level. Downstream demand was mediocre, the purchasing sentiment was poor, and the demand was mainly for low - price and essential needs [1]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 87 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 15, the domestic soda ash production was 775,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,700 tons (2.88% increase). Among them, the light soda ash production was 361,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,400 tons; the heavy soda ash production was 413,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,300 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.82%, compared with 84.39% last week, a month - on - month increase of 2.43%. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 89.95%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 78.88%, a month - on - month increase of 4.77%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons and above was 89.47%, a month - on - month increase of 1.32% [2]. - Inventory: As of January 19, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5442 million tons, a decrease of 30,800 tons (1.96% decline) compared with last Thursday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 822,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,400 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 721,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16,400 tons [2]. - Demand: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 773,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.20%; the overall shipment rate was 99.70%, a month - on - month increase of 21.52 percentage points. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. The demand for light soda ash was relatively stable, while the essential demand for heavy soda ash weakened due to the cold repair of glass production lines [2]. - Profit: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production method was - 44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 96.3 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 66.46%. During the week, the price of raw - material rock salt was stable, while the price of thermal coal increased, leading to an increase in costs [3]. Main Logic Summary The current capacity utilization rate of soda ash remains at a high level, and with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output continues to increase. There is still an expectation of cold repair of glass production lines near the end of the month, and the essential demand for soda ash may further weaken. [4]