能化维持偏弱对待

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry of energy and chemicals is maintained with a weak outlook [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical premium in crude oil due to the Iran situation is facing a correction, and supply surplus is driving the price down. Chemicals are generally under pressure due to high supply, high inventory, and weak demand [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: The Iran geopolitical sentiment peaked on January 14 and reversed on January 15. The premium is being unwound, and supply surplus is pushing the price down [2][3] - Technical analysis: Daily and hourly charts show a downward structure. Hold short - positions with a stop - loss at 447, and there is a chance for a second short - entry [3][4] Asphalt - Logic: Weak supply - demand fundamentals in the off - season, the Venezuela situation is cooling, and the cost center is likely to shift down as the geopolitical premium in crude oil fades [8] - Technical analysis: Hourly chart shows a short - term oscillation. Temporarily hold off on trading [8] Styrene - Logic: Recent supply - demand improvement supports the price, but there are signs of a potential peak. After a breakdown, focus on short opportunities in pure benzene [10] - Technical analysis: Hourly chart shows a short - term upward structure with a potential top. The short - term support is at 7200 (03 contract). Temporarily hold off on trading and wait for a breakdown to short on rebounds [10][12] Pure Benzene - Logic: The price is pushed up by hedging purchases, but high inventory and potential pressure from crude oil price drops mean not to chase high prices [13] - Technical analysis: Hourly chart shows a short - term upward structure with a potential top. The short - term support is at 5580 (03 contract), and the 15 - minute support is at 515. Temporarily hold off on trading and look for short opportunities on rebounds after a 15 - minute breakdown [13] Rubber - Logic: No supply - side speculation before the new tapping season, weak demand due to high tire inventory, and high imports in Qingdao. It moves passively and weaker than synthetic rubber [16] - Technical analysis: Daily chart shows a medium - term oscillation, and the hourly chart shows a short - term decline. Look for short opportunities after a rebound, with a short - term pressure at 15900 [16] Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The cost - end crude oil may peak soon, and the driving logic for the previous rise is breaking down. The supply of butadiene is high, and synthetic rubber will face cost pressure [19][22] - Technical analysis: Daily chart shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term decline. Hold short - positions with a stop - loss at 11950 and look for a second short - entry at night [22] PX - Logic: The price rose due to early - stage capital inflow but is now facing a short - term correction due to increased supply, weak downstream acceptance, and a lower cost center. Wait for a second low - entry opportunity in the medium - term [26] - Technical analysis: Daily chart shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term decline. Temporarily hold off on trading during this short - term decline [26] PTA - Logic: High supply, weak downstream acceptance in the off - season, and a lower cost center lead to a short - term correction [27] - Technical analysis: Daily chart shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term decline. Temporarily hold off on trading [29] PP - Logic: The olefin industry chain has a weak fundamental outlook. It lacks a long - side driver and is suitable for a hedging strategy of long aromatics (PX, PTA) and short olefins [31] - Technical analysis: Hourly chart shows a short - term decline. Temporarily hold off on trading and look for short opportunities after a rebound [31] Methanol - Logic: Geopolitical premium is being unwound, high domestic supply, falling coal prices, high port inventory, and negative demand feedback [34] - Technical analysis: Daily and hourly charts show a decline. Look for short - entry opportunities on rebounds with a stop - loss at 2255 [34] PVC - Logic: High supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi may reduce calcium carbide production, and the cancellation of export tax - rebate has a short - term positive and long - term negative impact [38] - Technical analysis: Daily chart shows a medium - term decline, and the hourly chart shows a short - term oscillation. Temporarily hold off on trading and look for short opportunities on rebounds in the 15 - minute cycle [38] Ethylene Glycol - Logic: High supply, weak demand in the off - season, and increasing port inventory lead to a downward - driving fundamental situation [39] - Technical analysis: Daily and hourly charts show a decline. Hold short - positions with a take - profit at 3770 [41] Plastic - Logic: The olefin industry chain has a weak fundamental outlook. It lacks a long - side driver and is suitable for a hedging strategy of long aromatics (PX, PTA) and short olefins [44] - Technical analysis: Daily and hourly charts show a decline. Wait for a rebound and then a short - entry signal [44] Soda Ash - Logic: High production, high inventory, and weak demand. There may be a rush - to - export market before April, but the export pressure will increase after April. Look for short opportunities after a rebound [46] - Technical analysis: Hourly chart shows a short - term decline. Temporarily hold off on trading and look for short opportunities on rebounds in the 15 - minute cycle [46] Caustic Soda - Logic: High supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply pressure remains high, and the downward trend is hard to reverse [50] - Technical analysis: Hourly chart shows a short - term decline. Temporarily hold off on trading and do not bottom - fish before the structure turns bullish [50]