沪铜日报：下游抵触，上涨受限-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The price of Shanghai copper opened low and moved low, but turned positive at the end of the session. Since 2026, the sulfuric acid price has slightly corrected, the smelter's profit has narrowed, and the spot processing fee has further weakened. Smelters plan to reduce production this year. The price of Shanghai copper corrected last week, and recycled copper enterprises made low - price purchases. Due to the shortage of copper concentrates and increased losses of copper smelters, scrap copper has gradually become the main source of smelting copper. However, both upstream and downstream are cautious, and the raw material procurement volume is poor. In January, the refined copper output is expected to decline. The downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing copper is low, resulting in a significant increase in copper inventory. The terminal new - energy market performs poorly. Although short - term decline does not mean a long - term trend, subsequent policy subsidies and the New Year's small peak season are expected to improve the production and sales situation. In the short term, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises mostly start their holidays, and the copper product sector is cautious in purchasing. The US president's plan to impose tariffs on European countries has an impact, and although the short - term decline of the US dollar is beneficial to copper prices, after continuous price increases, the downstream's resistance is high, and spot sales are sluggish, dragging down copper prices. It is expected that the increase of copper prices will be limited before the Spring Festival holiday without major positive stimuli [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Since 2026, the sulfuric acid price has slightly corrected, the smelter's profit has narrowed, and the spot processing fee has further weakened. Smelters plan to reduce production this year. The price of Shanghai copper corrected last week, and recycled copper enterprises made low - price purchases. With the shortage of copper concentrates and increased losses of copper smelters, scrap copper has gradually become the main source of smelting copper. Both upstream and downstream are cautious, and the raw material procurement volume is poor. In January, the refined copper output is expected to decline. The downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing copper is low, resulting in a significant increase in copper inventory. The terminal new - energy market performs poorly, with retail sales from January 1 - 11 being 117,000 vehicles, a 38% year - on - year decrease compared to the same period in 2025 and a 67% significant decline compared to the same period in December 2025. Although short - term decline does not mean a long - term trend, subsequent policy subsidies and the New Year's small peak season are expected to improve the production and sales situation. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises mostly start their holidays, and the copper product sector is cautious in purchasing. The US president's plan to impose tariffs on European countries has an impact. Although the short - term decline of the US dollar is beneficial to copper prices, after continuous price increases, the downstream's resistance is high, and spot sales are sluggish, dragging down copper prices. It is expected that the increase of copper prices will be limited before the Spring Festival holiday without major positive stimuli [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened low and moved low, but turned positive at the end of the session. Spot: The spot premium in East China today is - 150 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 145 yuan/ton. On January 20, 2026, the LME official price was 12,937 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was + 122 US dollars/ton [4] 3.3 Supply Side - As of the latest data on January 15, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 46.2 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.80 US cents/pound [6] 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory is 145,600 tons, a decrease of 2,612 tons from the previous period. As of January 19, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 106,100 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory is 156,300 tons, an increase of 8,875 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory is 547,600 short tons, an increase of 4,715 short tons from the previous period [9]