【冠通期货研究报告】铁矿日报：发运、到港量均回落，市场情绪有所降温-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore is expected to show a slightly weak and volatile trend in the short - term, but the overall downside space is limited. The supply of new shipments is gradually decreasing, the demand has rigid support, and the inventory in ports is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. Also, the futures contract shows a back structure + positive basis with futures at a discount [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of iron ore futures continued to decline weakly during the day, closing at 784 yuan/ton, a decrease of -5.5 yuan/ton or -0.7% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 225,000 lots, the open interest was 575,000 lots, and the settled funds were 9.922 billion yuan. The futures market is expected to test the support around 780 in the short - term, which is in line with the weak downward adjustment prediction [1]. - Spot price: The mainstream spot varieties at Qingdao Port, PB powder, dropped by -2 to 797 yuan/ton, Super Special powder dropped by -2 to 675 yuan/ton, and the main swap price was 103.25 (-0.95) US dollars/ton. Spot and swap prices declined again [1]. - Basis and spread: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price was 824.7 yuan/ton, with a basis of 40.7 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed slightly. The 5 - 9 spread of iron ore was 17.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 14 yuan. The iron ore futures contract shows a back structure + positive basis, and although it shows a weak and volatile trend in the short - term, the overall downside space may be limited [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, with significant decreases in Australia and Brazil, and an increase in non - mainstream countries. The arrivals this period decreased month - on - month, and there are expected supply disturbances due to weather. The supply increment expectation and inventory pressure are gradually increasing [2]. - Demand: The molten iron output decreased month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills recovered, and there is still rigid demand support. Steel mills are in the process of restocking, but the enthusiasm is still weak, and the game between upstream and downstream is strong. Pay attention to the recovery height of molten iron before the festival and the release rhythm of restocking demand [2]. - Inventory: The port inventory continued to accumulate, the berthing inventory increased slightly, and the inventory pressure is still building up. The steel mill inventory is still significantly lower than the historical average [2]. Macroeconomic Situation - Overseas: According to the December Fed Beige Book and the latest data from the US Department of Labor, the US economy maintained a "light to moderate" expansion, inflation continued to cool down, the December CPI decreased to 2.7% year - on - year, the core CPI was 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected, and the price of the commodity side weakened, indicating that the tariff transmission has peaked. Consumption shows a "K - shaped" characteristic, the high - income group maintains resilience, and the price sensitivity of the low - income group increases. Industrial production rebounded unexpectedly, with the December industrial output monthly rate at 0.4%, mainly driven by public utilities and manufacturing. The Fed maintains a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and the interest rate cut expectation is postponed to June [4]. - Domestic: According to the data from the People's Bank of China and the General Administration of Customs, policies are focused on new fields, such as a 25bp reduction in the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools and investment plans for the new power system of the power grid. Export resilience exceeded expectations, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.6% in December, significantly supported by emerging markets. Social financing data shows that corporate loans and bond financing are stronger than seasonal, but real estate and infrastructure are weak due to seasonal factors, and the M1 - M2 gap widened to 4.7%. There are clear clues for inflation improvement, and the PPI is expected to continue to recover [4].