华源晨会精粹20260121-20260121

Group 1: Power Investment and Construction Industry - The core viewpoint is that power investment is entering an accelerated cycle during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with the State Grid's fixed asset investment expected to reach a historical high of 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the previous plan [2][5][6] - The investment plan will focus on strengthening the power grid platform, accelerating the construction of ultra-high voltage direct current transmission channels, enhancing distribution network construction, and solidifying digital infrastructure [5][6] - The State Grid's investment in 2023 was 538.1 billion yuan, projected to increase to 609.2 billion yuan in 2024, and exceed 650 billion yuan in 2025, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 5% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][5][6] Group 2: Recommendations for Key Companies - It is recommended to focus on leading state-owned enterprises with capabilities in power engineering contracting and deep involvement in grid and renewable energy construction, such as China Power Construction and China Energy Engineering [2][6] - These companies have a strong foundation in ultra-high voltage transmission projects, energy base construction, and renewable energy stations, making them core players in the State Grid's investment system [6] - The expected high intensity of grid investment combined with the continuous expansion of renewable energy installations will directly boost the order scale and project volume for these companies [6] Group 3: Agriculture and Livestock Industry - The pig farming sector has seen a 4.9% decline, primarily due to market sentiment and concerns over capacity reduction, with the number of pigs slaughtered in 2025 reaching 71.973 million, a 2.4% increase year-on-year [10][11] - The price of pigs has recently risen to 13.25 yuan/kg, indicating a recovery in market sentiment, while the price of piglets has also increased, suggesting a weakening of capacity reduction expectations [10][11] - The industry is undergoing a policy shift towards protecting farmers' rights and stimulating enterprise innovation, with a focus on high-quality development and cost-leading enterprises expected to enjoy excess profits [11]