沥青日报：高开后震荡运行-20260121

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Report's Core View - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to use reverse arbitrage. Attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela. The supply of asphalt is affected by factors such as refinery production adjustments and the availability of Venezuelan heavy - oil. Demand is constrained by funds, weather, and the progress of road construction projects [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt开工率 increased by 1.8 percentage points to 27.2% week - on - week, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and at a relatively low level in recent years. In January 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) month - on - month and 276,000 tons (12.1%) year - on - year. The national asphalt shipment volume increased by 6.32% to 223,600 tons week - on - week. This week, Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical switched to asphalt production, while Qilu Petrochemical and Dongming Petrochemical planned to stop production, keeping the asphalt开工率 at a low level [1]. - Demand: Last week, the开工 rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. The road asphalt开工率 decreased by 2 percentage points to 15% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. A new round of rain and snow is coming, with road construction in the north gradually ending and southern projects also entering the final stage [1]. - Inventory: The asphalt refinery inventory rate continued to rise week - on - week and remained near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - Geopolitical Impact: The US military action in Venezuela has restricted the flow of Venezuelan heavy - oil to domestic refineries, which will affect asphalt production and costs. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude has increased, it is still expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2603 contract rose 0.45% to 3,157 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,134 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 3,167 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 3,111 to 187,438 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong region remained stable at 3,070 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract fell to - 87 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - to - neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Liaoning Zhende resumed production, and the asphalt开工率 increased by 1.8 percentage points to 27.2% week - on - week, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [5]. - Investment in Road Construction: From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage points compared to January - October 2025 but was still negative. From January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased to - 6.0% from - 4.7% in January - November 2025. From January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased to - 2.2% from - 1.1% in January - November 2025 [5]. - Social Financing: From January to December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.3%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to November. The recovery of medium - and long - term financing demand of enterprises was still weak [5]. - Inventory: As of the week of January 16, the asphalt refinery inventory rate increased by 0.7 percentage points to 14.1% compared to the week of January 9, remaining near the lowest level in recent years [5].