焦煤日报：供需双弱，焦煤承压-20260121

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The coking coal market is in a stage of weak supply and demand. The futures market is expected to fluctuate mainly due to the upstream - downstream game. Although there is an increase in production on the supply side and accelerated inventory transfer to downstream, the downstream iron - water production has decreased, and high - price transactions are insufficient, with demand mainly supported by winter storage. There is also a probability of pre - holiday coal mine safety inspections [1]. 3) Summary according to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Coking coal prices opened low and moved lower during the day. The utilization rate of approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines was 88.47%, a 3.13% increase from the previous period. The daily output of raw coal reached 1.9779 million tons. After the resumption of work, the inventory of coking coal mines decreased significantly, with a weekly decrease of 226,400 tons. Coking enterprises and steel mills increased their inventories by 611,700 tons and 44,700 tons respectively. The downstream iron - water production decreased by 0.47% week - on - week, with a weekly output of 2.2801 million tons. The futures market is expected to fluctuate mainly [1]. Spot Data - In the Shanxi market (Jiexiu), the mainstream price was 1,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking raw coal was 1,035 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The closing price of the main futures contract was 1,129 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi was 151 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply Data: From January 9th to January 16th, the coking coal开工率 of 523 domestic sample mines was 88.47%, a 3.13 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. The daily output of refined coking coal was 768,500 tons, an increase of 342,000 tons from the previous period [3]. - Demand Data: From January 9th to January 16th, the daily output of independent coking enterprises was 634,500 tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons from the previous period. The daily output of coke from 247 steel mills was 467,200 tons, a decrease of 160,000 tons from the previous period. The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 2.2801 million tons, a decrease of 1.49 million tons from the previous period [5].