国投期货农产品日报-20260121

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Beans 1: ★★☆ (implies a relatively clear upward trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ (indicates a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Palm Oil: ★★☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★☆ [1] - Corn: ★★☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ★★☆ [1] - Eggs: ★★☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including price trends, influencing factors, and future outlooks. It provides investment suggestions based on the analysis of each product's supply - demand situation, policy impact, and weather conditions [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Beans 1 - The main contract of domestic soybeans significantly reduced positions and prices declined. The bid - auction of 33,000 tons of domestic soybeans by CGS on Wednesday this week was fully sold, with a low - price and average price of 3,950 yuan/ton and zero premium. It is necessary to continuously focus on policy and spot - market guidance [2] Soybeans & Soybean Meal - US soybeans are oscillating strongly at the bottom. The recent depreciation of the US dollar is relatively beneficial to US soybean exports. However, the weather in South America has continuously improved, and the probability of La Nina turning into ENSO neutral in the first quarter is 75%. The expectation of a bumper harvest in South America has returned to the main trading logic. It is necessary to focus on US soybean exports and the impact of South American weather [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Indonesia revoked the operating licenses of some plantation - related enterprises this Tuesday, increasing the influence and assessment difficulty of policies on palm oil prices. Malaysia's palm oil export increased and production decreased month - on - month, which is beneficial to its supply - demand structure. The RIN market price of US soybean oil is still strong, and if it continues to strengthen, it will drive up US soybean oil. Overall, a range - bound trading idea is maintained for soybean and palm oil [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed futures fluctuated in a narrow range today, and the external Canadian canola also fluctuated around 640 Canadian dollars/ton. The futures markets in China and Canada have fully digested the improvement of economic and trade relations. It is necessary to pay attention to the official announcement of tariff adjustments for Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed oil. The domestic supply of rapeseed is expected to be tight in the near term, and rapeseed meal demand is weak. Overall, rapeseed futures are expected to fluctuate and build a bottom [6] Corn - The spot prices of corn in Northeast China and North Ports are stable, and the purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China are slightly stronger. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong's deep - processing enterprises this morning increased significantly compared to yesterday, and some enterprises lowered their purchase prices. The increase in state and local reserve auctions may gradually form pressure. Overall, this year's corn supply is relatively sufficient. The Dalian corn futures are expected to oscillate in the short term [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures have declined for three consecutive days. The spot price has significantly corrected today, and the decline in northern provinces with large previous increases has also expanded. The sharp decline in the live pig futures market since Monday this week may mark the end of the recent phased rebound. It is expected that there will still be a low point in pig prices in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - Egg futures are oscillating. The spot price is mostly stable today, and the egg price in Hebei has increased. In the short term, the futures and spot prices of eggs have been adjusted. In the long term, the industry's fundamentals are gradually improving, and the inventory of laying hens is on a downward trend. A long - position strategy on dips is maintained [9]