油粕日报：油强粕弱-20260121

Group 1: Report's Core View - The overall market shows a pattern of strong oils and weak meals. Near - month soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, while far - month contracts are weak. Oils have downward support and may receive additional upward drivers later [1][2] Group 2: Soybean Meal Market - As of the week ending January 15, 2026, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 1,336,684 tons, compared with 989,489 tons in the same period last year. The total U.S. soybean export inspection volume for the 2025/26 season so far is 19,335,069 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 40.2%, reaching 45.1% of the annual export target [1] - The first - quarter arrival estimate in China remains at 17.1 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 3.2 million tons), slightly lower than the three - year average. The second - quarter arrival estimate slightly increases to 36.9 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 2.6 million tons) [1] - The near - month supply has a certain gap, but the probability of an extreme shortage situation like last year is low. The spot rhythm around the Spring Festival is unclear. Near - month soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, while far - month contracts are weak due to the bearish effect of the USDA report. If the South American harvest is good, the main contract may decline further [1] Group 3: Oil Market - The market expects Malaysia's palm oil production in January to decline by 15% - 17%, and exports to increase significantly due to seasonal demand before the Spring Festival and Ramadan in February. If these factors persist until March, the ending inventory may drop significantly [2] - From January 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 16.49% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.08% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 16.06% month - on - month [2] - A Chinese importer bought a 60,000 - ton cargo of Canadian rapeseed after Canada's Prime Minister's visit to Beijing, which boosts Canadian export prospects and may weaken Australia's sales. The cargo is expected to be shipped after March [2] - Although Indonesia's palm oil B50 plan failed, there are significant buyers below. The crushing cost of rapeseed under the 15% tariff is still high, so the vegetable oil futures have strong support below. The U.S. biofuel policy in early March may bring additional upward drivers to the oil sector [2]