螺纹日报：止跌企稳-20260121

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The current demand for rebar is seasonally weak. The data released last week showed an uptick, indicating that the winter storage demand is starting. With about one month until the Spring Festival, there are expectations for the winter storage market. The output has slightly declined and is at a relatively low level compared to recent years. The anti - involution policy is expected to shrink production capacity, providing support at the bottom. The inventory has slightly decreased and is at a relatively low level with little pressure. The cost support has shifted downwards as iron ore and coking coal prices have weakened. The real - estate demand continues to decline, limiting the upside potential. After the recent decline, the market has digested the weak real - estate data, and the price is near the previous integer - level support. It is recommended to take a cautiously bullish approach at this level [4]. Group 3: Market行情 Review - Futures price: The rebar main contract on Wednesday had an increase of 1,023 lots in open interest, and the trading volume decreased compared to the previous trading day, with 633,661 lots. It stopped falling and stabilized, breaking below the 5 - day moving average, but was supported by the 10 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving averages. It stabilized near the 3,100 integer level, with a low of 3,104 yuan/ton, a high of 3,122 yuan/ton, and closed at 3,117 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.35% [1]. - Spot price: The mainstream area's spot price for HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 153 yuan/ton to the spot price. The large basis provided some support, and winter storage on the futures market was somewhat cost - effective [1]. Group 4: Fundamental Data - Supply: As of the week of January 15, rebar production decreased by 0.74 tons week - on - week to 190.3 tons, after four consecutive weeks of increase. It was 2.99 tons lower year - on - year in the Gregorian calendar. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 surveyed steel mills was 78.84%, down 0.47 percentage points week - on - week but up 1.66 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, down 0.56 percentage points week - on - week but up 1.20 percentage points year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, up 2.17 percentage points week - on - week but down 10.39 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 228.01 tons, down 1.49 tons week - on - week. This week's output decline and relatively low production compared to recent years provided some support for prices [2]. - Demand: The apparent consumption rebounded, and winter storage may have started. As of the week of January 15, the apparent consumption increased by 15.38 tons week - on - week to 190.34 tons, and was 5.19 tons higher year - on - year. After three consecutive weeks of decline, the apparent consumption rebounded significantly, indicating the possible start of winter storage demand [2]. - Inventory: The inventory decreased slightly, with a decrease in mill inventory and an increase in social inventory. As of the week of January 15, the total inventory decreased by 0.04 tons week - on - week to 438.07 tons. The social inventory was 295.41 tons, increasing by 5.23 tons week - on - week but still at a relatively low level in recent years. The mill inventory was 142.66 tons, down 5.27 tons. The increase in social inventory indicated weak downstream demand, while the decrease in mill inventory indicated some winter storage by traders [3]. - Macroeconomic: The central bank signaled moderate easing, and the Ministry of Finance emphasized that expenditure would only increase. However, due to the drag from real - estate demand, the incremental demand at the macro - level was relatively limited, but the easing cycle provided some support, and the upper limit of demand determined the pressure [3]. Group 5: Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The inventory was at a three - year low, the supply side was reducing production due to anti - involution, production capacity was strictly controlled, policies supported demand, post - holiday demand was expected to improve marginally, and the macro - economic outlook was optimistic [4]. - Bearish factors: There was an unexpected increase in inventory after the Spring Festival, the inventory reduction speed slowed down, blast furnace restart accelerated, winter storage demand was cautious, real - estate demand continued to decline, exports were restricted, and economic recovery was weak [4].