【冠通期货研究报告】塑料日报：震荡运行-20260121

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On January 21, 2026, the plastic maintenance devices changed little, with an operating rate of about 91%, at a moderately high level. The downstream PE operating rate dropped to 40.93%, and the agricultural film orders continued to decline. The petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level. With the easing of the Iran situation, the crude oil price declined. New plastic production capacity was put into operation recently, and it is expected that the plastic will fluctuate weakly in the near future, and the L - PP spread will decline [1]. - The plastic 2605 contract increased positions and fluctuated, closing at 6666 yuan/ton with a 0.41% increase, and the open interest increased to 504,362 lots [2]. - The PE spot market mostly declined, with LLDPE at 6520 - 6870 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8450 - 9180 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6840 - 8140 yuan/ton [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The plastic operating rate remained at about 91%, and the downstream PE operating rate dropped by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%. The petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level. The Iran situation eased, and the crude oil price declined. New production capacity was put into operation, and the plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the L - PP spread expected to decline [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract increased positions and fluctuated, closing at 6666 yuan/ton with a 0.41% increase, and the open interest increased by 9150 lots to 504,362 lots [2]. - Spot: The PE spot market mostly declined, with LLDPE at 6520 - 6870 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8450 - 9180 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6840 - 8140 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 21, the plastic operating rate remained at about 91%, at a moderately high level [1][4]. - Demand: As of the week of January 16, the downstream PE operating rate dropped by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%, the agricultural film orders continued to decline, and the overall downstream PE operating rate was at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4]. - Inventory: The petrochemical inventory on Wednesday decreased by 10,000 tons to 550,000 tons, higher than the same period last year, and was at a neutral level in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $64/barrel, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $710/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price dropped by $10/ton to $690/ton [4].