HIKVISION(SZ:002415) GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-01-21 13:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hikvision with a target price of 43.35 CNY per share [5][11]. Core Insights - Hikvision's 2025 net profit is projected to be 14.188 billion CNY, reflecting an 18.46% year-over-year increase, driven by high-quality development strategies and AI empowerment [2][11]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 92.518 billion CNY in 2025, remaining stable compared to 2024, while the fourth quarter revenue was 26.760 billion CNY, showing a slight decline of 2.70% year-over-year [11][12]. - The report highlights a strategic shift towards sustainable profit growth by prioritizing high-quality revenue over mere scale, resulting in improved profit margins and operational efficiency [11][12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at 89.341 billion CNY, with projections of 92.496 billion CNY for 2024 and 92.518 billion CNY for 2025, indicating a growth rate of 7.4% in 2023 and a stable outlook for 2025 [4][12]. - Net profit for 2023 is 14.108 billion CNY, with a forecasted increase to 14.188 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a 9.9% increase in 2023 and an 18.5% increase in 2025 [4][12]. - The report anticipates earnings per share (EPS) of 1.55 CNY for 2025, with a projected increase to 2.02 CNY by 2027 [11][12]. Operational Performance - The company's operational cash flow is expected to significantly improve in 2025 due to better management of accounts receivable, without compromising credit policies for revenue growth [11][12]. - The report notes a consistent increase in net profit growth rates throughout 2025, with quarterly growth rates of 6.41%, 14.94%, 20.31%, and 25.83% respectively [11][12]. - Hikvision's focus on AI and innovative business segments is expected to drive long-term growth, with the introduction of numerous "IoT + AI" products and advancements in various industrial applications [11][12].