【冠通期货研究报告】热卷日报：止跌企稳-20260121

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. The anti-involution policy still has expectations, providing strong support at the lower end. The weekly-on-week apparent demand has rebounded, and the year-on-year demand remains strong. The demand during the off-season shows strong resilience. The warming up of winter storage sentiment may drive a wave of demand. The total inventory is relatively high, posing some pressure, but the recent continuous destocking may relieve the pressure if it persists. The daily line of hot-rolled coil futures is currently near the support of the 30-day and 60-day moving averages. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether it can stabilize at this level and break through the pressure near the 10-day moving average. It is recommended to adopt a cautiously bullish approach, but note that the oscillation range has not been completely broken yet [6]. Summary by Directory Market Review - Futures Price: On Wednesday, the trading volume of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract decreased compared to the previous trading day. The price fluctuated and stabilized within the day, with a daily low of 3271 yuan and a high of 3290 yuan. It closed at 3286 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.06%. The short-term moving average retraced to the support near the 30-day moving average and then rebounded. Attention should be paid to the pressure near the 10-day moving average [1]. - Spot Price: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3270 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was -16 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 15, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 2.85 million tons to 3.0836 billion tons compared to the previous week. The year-on-year output decreased by 1.183 million tons. The production has been rising for four consecutive weeks, mainly due to improved profitability of steel mills, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of molten iron from building materials to plates, and the resumption of production after the end of annual maintenance [4]. - Demand: As of January 15, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 5.82 million tons to 3.1416 billion tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand rebounded significantly this week, with a year-on-year increase of 0.51 million tons. The demand data is at a high level in recent years, indicating strong demand resilience [4]. - Inventory: As of January 15, the total inventory decreased by 5.8 million tons to 3.6233 billion tons compared to the previous week. The social inventory decreased by 5.01 million tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 0.79 million tons. The total inventory continued to decline, indicating strong demand for hot-rolled coils. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years, but if the destocking continues, the pressure on prices will decrease [4]. - Policy: New regulations on the export license management of steel products have been introduced, which will cause short-term fluctuations in exports, an increase in supply, and price pressure. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness enhancement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involution competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish Factors: Decrease in supply output, expected start of winter storage demand, export rush market, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore prices [6]. - Bearish Factors: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6].