安踏体育：短期波动不改龙头本色-20260121

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 109.21 [1][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Anta Sports experienced a low single-digit negative growth in brand revenue for Q4 2025, while FILA brand revenue showed a mid-single-digit positive growth. Other brands saw a revenue increase of 35-40% [6][9]. - Despite short-term pressures on the main brand due to external factors such as a warm winter and the timing of the Spring Festival, the overall revenue for the year is expected to achieve double-digit growth. The company is expected to continue its "single focus, multi-brand, globalization" strategy and increase investment in product development and sports resources [6][7]. - The report anticipates that the company will further consolidate its leading position in the sports footwear and apparel market, supported by the successful execution of its multi-brand strategy and ongoing reforms [6][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: RMB 70,826 million (up 13.58%) - 2025E: RMB 77,953 million (up 10.06%) - 2026E: RMB 85,110 million (up 9.18%) - 2027E: RMB 92,865 million (up 9.11%) [5]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be: - 2024: RMB 15,596 million (up 52.36%) - 2025E: RMB 13,021 million (down 16.51%) - 2026E: RMB 14,011 million (up 7.60%) - 2027E: RMB 15,495 million (up 10.59%) [5]. - The report also provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates, with 2026E EPS expected to be RMB 4.86 [5]. Brand Performance Summary - Anta's main brand faced challenges in Q4 2025, primarily due to high base effects and seasonal factors, but is expected to achieve positive growth in 2026 as e-commerce adjustments take effect [7]. - FILA brand is projected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by e-commerce and a focus on high-end positioning, with a healthy revenue growth forecast for 2026 [8]. - Other brands, particularly in the outdoor segment, are expected to maintain strong growth, with specific brands like Descente and KAILAS showing significant revenue increases [9].