银河期货油脂日报-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the overall trend of the oil market is volatile, with many uncertainties and no prominent contradictions. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading [7][8][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - Price and Basis: For soybean oil, the 2605 closing price is 8044, up 12. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8564, 8604, and 8434 respectively. The basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 560, 520, and 390 respectively. For palm oil, the 2605 closing price is 8832, up 84. The spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 8802, 8822, and 8962 respectively. The basis in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are - 30, 0, and 130 respectively. For rapeseed oil, the 2605 closing price is 8947, down 1. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong are 9747, 9547 respectively. The basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Guangxi are 800, - 30, and 600 respectively [2] - Monthly Spread: The 5 - 9 monthly spread of soybean oil is 96, down 28; that of palm oil is 38, up 6; that of rapeseed oil is 9, up 36 [2] - Cross - variety Spread: The 05 - contract Y - P spread is - 788, down 72; the OI - Y spread is 903, down 13; the OI - P spread is 115, down 85. The oil - meal ratio is 2.95, up 0.02 [2] - Import Profit: The CNF price of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia with a 2 - month ship - date is 1062, and the disk profit is - 42. The FOB price of rapeseed oil from Rotterdam with a 2 - month ship - date is 1030, and the disk profit is - 1292 [2] - Weekly Commercial Inventory: In the 3rd week of 2026, the soybean oil inventory is 96.3 tons, down from 102.5 tons last week and up from 87.7 tons last year. The palm oil inventory is 74.6 tons, up from 73.6 tons last week and up from 46.9 tons last year. The rapeseed oil inventory is 27.5 tons, up from 25.1 tons last week and down from 55.2 tons last year [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International Market: From January 1 - 20, 2026, in Malaysia, the single - yield decreased by 16.49%, the oil - extraction rate increased by 0.08%, and the production decreased by 16.06% [4] - Domestic Market - Palm Oil: The palm oil futures price fluctuated and closed up nearly 1% today. As of January 16, 2026, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory is 74.61 tons, up 1.01 tons from last week, with a growth rate of 1.37%. The inventory is at a slightly above - average level in the same period of history. The origin quotation is stable, the import profit inversion has narrowed to about - 50, and there is a rumor of one palm oil purchase today. The basis is stable. In the short - term, the palm oil lacks obvious driving forces, and the de - stocking speed is expected to be slow under high inventory. The high inventory will continue, and the short - term disk will maintain a volatile trend [4] - Domestic Market - Soybean Oil: The soybean oil futures price fluctuated and closed slightly up today. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 199.42 tons, and the operating rate was 54.86%, an increase from the previous week. As of January 16, 2026, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory is 96.33 tons, down 6.18 tons from last week, with a decline rate of 6.03%. The soybean oil is in the process of continuous de - stocking but is at a relatively high level in the same period of history. The basis is stable. The oil - mill crushing rhythm is accelerating, and the downstream pre - holiday stocking demand is increasing. The soybean oil inventory is expected to decline slightly, but the overall inventory is still sufficient. In the short - term, the domestic soybean oil supply is abundant, the upward momentum is weak, and it is expected to maintain a bottom - volatile trend [4][5] - Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil: The rapeseed oil futures price fluctuated and closed slightly down today. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, and the operating rate was 0%. The rapeseed inventory is at the bottom. As of January 16, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 27.5 tons, up 2.4 tons from last week, at a relatively neutral level in the same period of history, and the inventory is in the process of continuous marginal de - stocking. The FOB quotation of European rapeseed oil is stable at around 1030 US dollars, and the import profit inversion has expanded to about - 1300. Recently, there are rumors of domestic purchase of Canadian rapeseed. In the short - term, the domestic rapeseed oil available for circulation is in short supply, which supports the basis. The expected increase in domestic rapeseed supply may cause the rapeseed oil to run weakly in a volatile manner. However, considering that it will take time for the rapeseed purchase ships to arrive at the port after March, and the market expects the final US biodiesel plan to be announced in March, the good biodiesel expectation has a certain positive driving force for soybean oil and rapeseed oil, and the decline space of the near - month rapeseed oil contract may be limited [5] 3.3 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: In the short - term, the oil market is volatile, with many uncertainties and no prominent contradictions. It is recommended to wait and see [7] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8] - Options: Wait and see [9] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides 8 figures, including the spot basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and the monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [12][13][16][20]