铁合金日报-20260121

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a black metal daily report on ferroalloys dated January 21, 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF主力合约 closed at 5556, up 4 from the previous day and down 134 for the week, with a trading volume of 130,862 (down 17,653) and an open interest of 245,555 (down 1,555) [3] - SM主力合约 closed at 5786, down 12 from the previous day and down 134 for the week, with a trading volume of 135,360 (down 5,194) and an open interest of 332,292 (up 117,126) [3] Spot - For ferrosilicon, 72%FeSi prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were 5350, 5320, 5300, 5650, and 5780 respectively. The daily changes were 30, 0, 0, 0, 0, and the weekly changes were -100, -100, -50, -100, -70 [3] - For silicomanganese, the spot prices of 6517 in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were 5680, 5570, 5750, 5720, and 5650 respectively. The daily changes were 0, 0, 0, -30, -30, and the weekly changes were -70, -60, -100, -100, -100 [3] Basis/Spread - For ferrosilicon, the basis of Inner Mongolia - main contract was -206, up 26 from the previous day and up 34 for the week; Ningxia - main contract was -236, down 4 from the previous day and up 34 for the week; Qinghai - main contract was -256, down 4 from the previous day and up 84 for the week; Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia was 300, down 30 from the previous day and unchanged for the week; SF - SM spread was -230, up 16 from the previous day and unchanged for the week [3] - For silicomanganese, the basis of Inner Mongolia - main contract was -106, up 12 from the previous day and up 64 for the week; Ningxia - main contract was -216, up 12 from the previous day and up 74 for the week; Guangxi - main contract was -36, up 12 from the previous day and up 34 for the week; Guangxi - Inner Mongolia was 70, unchanged from the previous day and down 30 for the week [3] Raw Materials - For manganese ore in Tianjin, the prices of Australian lump, South African semi - carbonate, and Gabon lump were 41.7, 36.2, and 42.8 respectively. The daily changes were -0.1, 0, -0.2, and the weekly changes were -0.3, -0.3, -0.7 [3] - For semi - coke small materials, the prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia were 770, 840, and 750 respectively, with no daily or weekly changes [3] Group 3: Market Judgment Trading Strategy - On January 21, ferroalloy futures prices showed mixed trends. The SF main contract was 5556, up 0.07%, with an open interest decrease of 1555 lots; the SM main contract closed at 5748, down 0.21%, with an open interest decrease of 11,069 lots [6] - For ferrosilicon, the spot price on the 21st was stable with a slight upward trend, with some regional spot prices rising by 30 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the short - term operating rate decreased slightly, and with the technical transformation expectation brought by the differential electricity price in Shaanxi, there was still an expectation of supply decline in the future. On the demand side, an accidental accident in a steel mill in Inner Mongolia led to production cuts, but the impact on the national scope was limited. Recently, both the apparent demand and production of steel increased, and there was short - term support for raw material demand. On the cost side, the electricity price in the main production areas was stable with a slight downward trend recently, but there was an expectation of electricity price increase in some areas. The self - valuation level of ferrosilicon was not high, and it could be used as a long - position variety on dips [6] - For silicomanganese, on the 21st, the manganese ore spot was stable with a slight downward trend. The prices of Australian lump and Gabon lump in Tianjin Port decreased by 0.1 - 0.2 yuan/ton - degree, and the spot prices of silicomanganese in some areas decreased by 30 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the operating rate of sample enterprises decreased slightly, but some new production capacities started to be put into operation, and the overall supply was stable. On the demand side, as mentioned in the ferrosilicon part, both the apparent demand and production of steel increased, and there was short - term support for raw material demand. On the cost side, the port inventory of manganese ore continued to decline, the port spot was slightly adjusted but generally firm, and the overseas mine quotes continued to rise. The valuation level of silicomanganese was not high, and the cost support was relatively strong. It could be used as a long - position variety on dips [6] Overall Strategy - Unilateral: The alloy valuation level is not high, and the cost support is relatively strong. It can be used as a long - position variety on dips [7] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [7] Important Information - On the 21st, the quotes of semi - carbonate (Mn36.48%Fe5.47%), Australian lump (Mn41.6%), South African medium - iron lump (Mn42%Fe16%), Gabon lump (Mn47%), and CML Australian lump (Mn47%) in Tianjin Port were 36, 42, 39, 43.5, and 43.5 yuan/ton - degree respectively [8] - The Chinese Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the overall fiscal expenditure will "only increase and not decrease", and the government debt ratio is still low; it will implement the loan interest subsidy policy for small and medium - sized enterprises and extend the implementation period of the fiscal interest subsidy policy for personal consumption loans [8] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes various charts such as the trend review of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM on the disk, the inter - month spreads of SF and SM, the basis of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the spot prices of silicomanganese, the electricity price of ferroalloys, the production cost and profit of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [10][12][14][16]