资产配置日报：暗流涌动-20260121

Group 1 - The report highlights a calm surface in the stock and bond markets, while underlying capital flows are active, with the A-share index rising by 0.57% and trading volume decreasing by 180.5 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - The report notes a significant increase in trading volume for broad-based ETFs, with the Shanghai Composite 50 ETF reaching its highest trading volume since 2016, indicating a potential shift towards a "slow bull" market [2] - The semiconductor sector saw a notable rebound, with the Wind Semiconductor Index increasing by 3.46%, driven by CPU price increases and demand from AI applications [3] Group 2 - In the bond market, the 10-year government bond yield stabilized at 1.83%, with a cautious sentiment prevailing in the morning session, but later improved as demand for 7-year bonds exceeded expectations [4] - The report discusses two key themes: unexpected tax period easing and a sudden activation of trading in long-term bonds, with the 30-year government bond yield dropping by 4.5 basis points over two days [5][6] - The report indicates that the supply of government bonds in January was lower than expected, leading to a temporary improvement in the supply-demand relationship in the bond market [6] Group 3 - The commodity market continues to show a mixed pattern, with precious metals and lithium carbonate leading gains, while industrial metals have rebounded [7][8] - The report notes a significant inflow of funds into gold, with over 11.6 billion yuan entering the market, reflecting heightened risk aversion among investors [8][9] - The report warns of potential volatility in lithium carbonate prices due to reliance on market sentiment and the possibility of regulatory changes affecting trading dynamics [10]