财政金融促内需新政对债市有何影响

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The signal significance of the new fiscal and financial policies to boost domestic demand in bridging the gap between macro and micro economic situations is greater than the short - term effects [1][11] - In the first quarter, the bond market focuses more on expectations than reality in fundamental trading. The "five - pronged" fiscal policies confirm the idea of a steady and intensified policy, reducing the probability of a significant increase in growth policies, especially fiscal policies, in the first year of the "15th Five - Year Plan". The next observation point for 2026's growth policy is the National People's Congress in early March [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 New Fiscal and Financial Policies to Boost Domestic Demand - On January 20, the Ministry of Finance and other departments issued a package of fiscal and financial policies to boost domestic demand, including two new and three optimized policies. The new policies for private investment are the private investment special guarantee plan and the small - and - medium - sized enterprise loan discount policy. The optimized policies are the personal consumption loan, service industry business entity loan, and equipment renewal loan fiscal discount policies [6][7] - The policy ideas of fiscal discount and special guarantee plans are "precision drip irrigation" for broad credit. Fiscal discount policies have been expanding since June 2024, and the special guarantee plan's scope has been extended from the science and innovation field in July 2024 to the entire private investment field [8] 3.2 Policy Effects - The signal significance of these policies in bridging the gap between macro and micro economic situations is greater than the short - term effects. The focus is on micro - level support, but the overall scale of fiscal discount policies is limited. In 2025, the fiscal discount fund scale was about tens of billions, with a 165 - billion - yuan discount scale in the first three quarters of 2025 for science and technology innovation and technological transformation loans [11] 3.3 Impact on the Bond Market - In the first quarter, the bond market pays more attention to expectations than reality due to seasonal disturbances. The new policies confirm the steady and intensified policy idea and lower the probability of a significant increase in growth policies, ending the initial pricing of growth policy expectations in 2026. The next key observation point is the National People's Congress in early March [12]