计算机行业事件点评：再谈CPU产业链重大机遇

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the CPU industry, indicating a cautious outlook on the sector's performance relative to the benchmark index [8]. Core Insights - The CPU's importance is expected to significantly increase due to advancements in AI and the emergence of new computational scenarios, which demand higher processing speeds and precision [13]. - DeepSeek's recent developments in AI model architecture highlight the potential for CPUs to handle large-scale models more efficiently, reducing reliance on expensive GPU memory [5][6]. - The ongoing shortage of CPU supply, particularly from leading manufacturers like Intel, is projected to peak in the first quarter of 2026, driven by demand exceeding supply [6][7]. Summary by Sections CPU Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for CPUs is anticipated to rise due to the increasing need for processing power in AI applications, with Intel indicating that the shortage may persist as they do not plan to expand production capacity [6][7]. - The report notes that the design of systems that decouple storage and computation can lead to significant efficiency gains, allowing for larger model parameters to be stored in cost-effective CPU memory [5][6]. AI Agent Trends - The report discusses the expected growth in the number of active AI agents, predicting an increase from approximately 28.6 million in 2025 to 2.216 billion by 2030, which will drive CPU demand [12]. - The annual execution of tasks by these agents is projected to rise dramatically, necessitating a substantial increase in CPU supply to meet the demands of AI workloads [12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several key areas within the CPU ecosystem, including CPU chip manufacturers, advanced wafer fabrication, and related solutions, highlighting companies such as Haiguang Information and SMIC [13].