GF SECURITIES·2026-01-21 23:30Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The Q4 predetermined interest rate research value is 1.89%, indicating that product predetermined rates remain stable [6] - The insurance industry is expected to see a marginal improvement in the "interest and expense difference" due to regulatory guidance aimed at reducing liability costs and potential increases in asset yields [6] - The dynamic adjustment mechanism for predetermined rates and the transformation of participating insurance are expected to drive down the rigid liability costs of new policies, leading to a turning point for existing liability costs [6] - The report suggests focusing on the insurance sector, with specific stock recommendations including China Ping An, China Life, China Taiping, and others [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Q4 predetermined interest rate research value is 1.89%, which does not meet the conditions for a rate reduction, as it is only 11 basis points lower than the current traditional insurance predetermined rate of 2.0% [6] - The expected stability of the predetermined interest rate is projected to continue into Q1 2026, with an estimated value of around 1.9% [6] Regulatory Environment - The China Insurance Industry Association has set guidelines for adjusting predetermined rates, which require a 25 basis point difference over two consecutive quarters to trigger a reduction [6] - The report highlights the importance of the 10-year government bond yield as a key indicator influencing the research value [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the insurance sector, particularly companies such as China Ping An (A/H), China Life (A/H), China Taiping (H), and others, due to expected improvements in profitability margins [6][7]