Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, in the long - term, policies support the capital market, and the strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, in the context of weak domestic demand recovery, there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate [6]. - For precious metals, in the medium - term, there is a buying opportunity after the price correction [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, in the double - wide cycle, the bullish sentiment of commodities continues, with the main focus on precious metals and non - ferrous metals, and other sectors are affected by the spill - over of market sentiment [41]. - For black building materials, the prices of black series continue to oscillate in the bottom range, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction progress of hot - rolled coils and relevant policies [30]. - For energy and chemicals, different varieties have different trends, such as rubber is expected to decline after consolidation, and some varieties have opportunities for long - term investment [51]. - For agricultural products, different products have different outlooks, such as short - term support for the near - month contracts of live pigs and eggs, but medium - term pressure on some products [78][80]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - Market Information: Policies include solving abnormal low - price problems in government procurement, supporting the real estate market, and promoting cross - border payment systems [2]. - Basis Ratio: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different periods are provided [3]. - Strategy: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy in the long - term, and pay attention to the market rhythm in the short - term [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Information: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS contracts changed on Wednesday. Policies focus on urban renewal and real estate system construction. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 1227 billion yuan [5]. - Strategy: In the context of weak domestic demand recovery, there is room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate, mainly affected by the stock - bond seesaw [6]. Precious Metals - Market Information: The prices of gold and silver in domestic and foreign markets changed. The conflict over Greenland was alleviated, and the inventory of COMEX silver decreased [7]. - Strategy: In the medium - term, there is a buying opportunity after the price correction, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver contracts [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Market Information: The price of copper followed the trend of gold and fell. LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic spot was at a discount [10]. - Strategy: The copper price is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term, with reference price ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper [11]. Aluminum - Market Information: The price of aluminum fell slightly. The inventory of LME aluminum increased, and the domestic downstream procurement sentiment improved [12]. - Strategy: The decline of aluminum price is limited, and it is still supported in the short - term, with reference price ranges for Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum [13]. Zinc - Market Information: The price of zinc fell. The inventory of zinc ingots increased, and the LME announced restrictions on some zinc brands [14]. - Strategy: Zinc has room for price increase compared with copper and aluminum, and follow - up attention should be paid to the leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio [15]. Lead - Market Information: The price of lead fell. The inventory of lead ingots increased, and the LME announced restrictions on some lead brands [16]. - Strategy: The lead price may oscillate and adjust, and follow - up attention should be paid to the leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio [17]. Nickel - Market Information: The price of nickel fluctuated slightly. The prices of nickel ore and nickel iron changed [18]. - Strategy: The Shanghai nickel is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see, with reference price ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel [19]. Tin - Market Information: The price of tin rebounded. The smelting start - up rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi were stable, and the inventory increased [20][21]. - Strategy: The supply - demand of tin has improved marginally, and the price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference price ranges for domestic and overseas tin contracts [22]. Carbonate Lithium - Market Information: The price of carbonate lithium rebounded. The spot index and futures contract price increased [23]. - Strategy: The supply contraction expectation has not been falsified, but there is a callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position, with a reference price range for the futures contract [23]. Alumina - Market Information: The price of alumina increased slightly. The inventory increased, and the overseas price decreased [24]. - Strategy: The ore price is expected to decline, and the over - capacity of alumina smelting is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range for the domestic contract [25]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: The price of stainless steel increased. The inventory decreased, and the raw material prices changed [26]. - Strategy: In the short - term, the market is expected to be strong, and the price may oscillate at a high level, with a reference price range for the main contract [26]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The price of casting aluminum alloy oscillated. The inventory decreased, and the trading volume increased [27]. - Strategy: The price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, with strong cost support and general demand [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market Information: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils changed. The inventory and production of hot - rolled coils and rebar changed [30]. - Strategy: The prices of steel products continue to oscillate in the bottom range. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction progress of hot - rolled coils and relevant policies [30]. Iron Ore - Market Information: The price of iron ore fell. The inventory increased, and the supply and demand changed [31]. - Strategy: The supply pressure eases marginally, and the price is supported in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the steel mill's restocking and iron - water production rhythm [32]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Information: The prices of coking coal and coke changed. The technical forms and supply - demand structures are analyzed [33][34]. - Strategy: The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to market sentiment fluctuations [36]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass - Market Information: The price of glass fell. The inventory decreased, and the trading volume changed [37]. - Strategy: The glass market is in a loose balance, and the price is expected to oscillate widely, with a reference price range for the main contract [38]. - Soda Ash - Market Information: The price of soda ash fell. The inventory increased slightly, and the trading volume changed [39]. - Strategy: The soda ash market is in a weak - oscillating pattern, and the price is expected to continue to be weak, with a reference price range for the main contract [39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon changed. The technical forms and supply - demand structures are analyzed [40]. - Strategy: The supply - demand of manganese silicon is not ideal, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and relevant factors, and there are opportunities for long - term investment [43]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon - Market Information: The price of industrial silicon increased slightly. The supply and demand changed [44]. - Strategy: The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate due to news disturbances, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts by large factories [45]. - Polysilicon - Market Information: The price of polysilicon fell. The supply pressure is expected to ease [46]. - Strategy: The market is in a wait - and - see state, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to spot transactions and exchange risk - control measures [47]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market Information: The price of rubber oscillated and rebounded. The supply and demand, inventory, and spot prices changed [49][50]. - Strategy: Rubber is expected to decline after consolidation, and a short - on - rebound strategy is recommended [51]. Crude Oil - Market Information: The price of crude oil increased. The inventory of refined oil products in ports changed [52]. - Strategy: Take profit on heavy - oil spreads and go long on crude oil at the shale - oil break - even cost range [53]. Methanol - Market Information: The regional spot and futures prices of methanol changed [54]. - Strategy: The valuation is low, and there is room for long - term investment due to geopolitical expectations [55]. Urea - Market Information: The regional spot and futures prices of urea changed [56]. - Strategy: The import window is open, and it is recommended to take profit on rallies [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed. The supply, demand, and inventory are analyzed [60]. - Strategy: There is room for upward valuation repair of styrene non - integrated profit, and it is recommended to go long on non - integrated profit before the first quarter [61]. PVC - Market Information: The price of PVC fell. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [62]. - Strategy: The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak. In the short - term, there is support from electricity prices and export rush, and in the medium - term, a short - on - rallies strategy is recommended [63]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The price of ethylene glycol increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [64][65]. - Strategy: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. There is a risk of rebound in the short - term, and valuation compression is expected in the medium - term [66]. PTA - Market Information: The price of PTA increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [67]. - Strategy: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation period. There is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to long - term investment opportunities [68]. p - Xylene - Market Information: The price of p - xylene fell. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [69]. - Strategy: PX is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. There are long - term investment opportunities following crude oil after the Spring Festival [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: The price of PE increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [72]. - Strategy: The price of crude oil may have bottomed out. The supply pressure is reduced, and the price is supported by inventory reduction [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: The price of PP increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [74]. - Strategy: The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction. There are opportunities for long - term investment in the PP5 - 9 spread [75]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market Information: The price of live pigs mainly declined. The consumption and supply situation is analyzed [77]. - Strategy: The short - term near - month contracts are supported, but the medium - term supply pressure is high [78]. Eggs - Market Information: The price of eggs was mostly stable. The supply, demand, and inventory are analyzed [79]. - Strategy: The near - month contracts are strong in the short - term, but the overall supply is sufficient, and the long - term outlook for the far - end contracts is uncertain [80]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal futures changed. The supply and demand situation is affected by policies and imports [81]. - Strategy: The prices of protein meals have fallen to the previous low, with many negative news. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [82]. Oils - Market Information: The prices of oils futures changed. The supply and demand situation is affected by production, consumption, and policies [83][84]. - Strategy: The current fundamentals are weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [85]. Sugar - Market Information: The price of sugar fell. The supply and demand situation is affected by imports and production in different countries [86][88]. - Strategy: After the negative impact of production increase is realized, there may be a rebound in international sugar prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [89]. Cotton - Market Information: The price of cotton oscillated. The supply and demand situation is affected by imports, production, and consumption [90][91]. - Strategy: In the long - term, there is room for the cotton price to rise. It is recommended to wait for a correction and then go long [92].
五矿期货文字早评-20260122
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-22 00:59