天然气：价格26年趋于平稳，27年大幅上升

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The US natural gas price is expected to be relatively stable in 2026 and then rise in 2027 as market conditions tighten The Henry Hub natural gas spot price is projected to average slightly below $3.50 per million British thermal units this year, a 2% decrease from 2025, and then surge to an annual average of over $4.60 per million British thermal units in 2027 The increase in 2027 is due to demand growth outpacing supply growth [2] 3. Key Points by Section Price Forecast - EIA has lowered the Henry Hub price forecast for Q1 2026 from an average of $4.35 per million British thermal units last month to $3.38 per million British thermal units The prediction assumes milder - than - normal January temperatures, which may limit natural gas consumption during the peak space - heating season On January 9, the Henry Hub spot price was below $3 per million British thermal units, compared to around $5 per million British thermal units a month ago [3] Demand and Production - US dry natural gas production is expected to grow continuously throughout the forecast period It is projected to increase by 1% this year to nearly 109 billion cubic feet per day, led by the Permian region In 2027, production will grow another 1%, with the growth center shifting to the Haynesville region [6] - Total US natural gas demand, including exports, will grow by 2% in 2027, exceeding total supply (production plus imports) The total demand is forecast to reach 119 billion cubic feet per day in 2027, more than 1 billion cubic feet per day higher than the total supply, which will tighten the market balance and support higher prices at the end of the forecast period [6] - The growth in total demand is mainly driven by the expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and the growth of electricity - sector consumption LNG exports grew by 26% in 2025 and will continue to grow through 2027, with an expected growth of 9% in 2026 and 11% in 2027 This growth is due to the operation of three new LNG export facilities [7] - The consumption of natural gas for power generation is also growing steadily, while the combined natural gas consumption of the industrial, residential, and commercial sectors decreased by 3% in 2026 and remained relatively stable in 2027 Industrial consumption decreased in 2026 and 2027 due to climate assumptions closer to the long - term average and lower industrial activity levels [8]