2026-01-22：五矿期货农产品早报-20260122

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For sugar, after the northern hemisphere finishes the sugar - crushing season in February and the bearish impact of increased production is fully realized, international sugar prices may rebound. With the reduction of imported sugar supply in China and sugar prices at a low level, the short - term downward space is limited, so it's advisable to wait and see [3]. - For cotton, in the medium - to - long - term, due to the reduction of planting area in the new season and positive macro - economic expectations, cotton prices have room to rise. However, due to the recent sharp increase, it needs time to digest, so it's recommended to wait for a correction before going long [8]. - For protein meal, the January USDA report is slightly bearish. Although China's increased purchase of US soybeans supports CBOT soybean prices, it is bearish for domestic meal prices. The possible reduction of the import tax rate of Canadian rapeseed is also a major negative for domestic rapeseed prices. With protein meal prices at previous lows and many negative news, short - term fluctuations will increase, so it's better to wait and see [12]. - For oils, the current fundamentals of palm oil are weak with high production, low exports, and high inventory. But in the long - term, with the expected reduction of Malaysian production, Indonesia's confiscation of illegal plantations, and the expected increase in US biodiesel soybean oil consumption in 2026, the outlook is optimistic. Short - term waiting is recommended [17]. - For eggs, in the short - term, the near - month contracts may fluctuate within a limited range due to sufficient supply and the approaching seasonal price increase. The far - end contracts have long - term positive expectations but face uncertainties, so pay attention to the pressure after over - valuation [20]. - For pigs, in the short - term, low prices and the festival effect stimulate consumption, and the large spread between fat and standard pigs leads to hoarding, supporting the near - month contracts. In the medium - term, the large supply base and the risk of inventory accumulation may still put pressure on far - end prices [23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sugar Market Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to decline. The closing price of the May contract was 5144 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton or 0.75% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5270 - 5340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [2]. - In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year - on - year [2]. - In the first half of December, the sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil was 254,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.8%. The cumulative sugar production was 40.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86% [2]. - As of January 15, 2026, India's sugar production reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase from 13.044 million tons in the same period last year [2]. - As of the week of January 15, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 48, up from 44 in the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.6629 million tons, up from 1.5823 million tons in the previous week [2]. Strategy - Wait for the northern hemisphere to finish the sugar - crushing season in February. After the bearish impact of increased production is fully realized, international sugar prices may rebound. With the reduction of imported sugar supply in China and sugar prices at a low level, the short - term downward space is limited, so it's advisable to wait and see [3] Cotton Market Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract was 14,535 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.07% from the previous trading day. The spot price of CCIndex 3128B was 15,819 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton [5]. - In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, the cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons year - on - year [5]. - As of the week of January 16, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.6%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous week but up 8.6 percentage points from the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.69 million tons, an increase of 380,000 tons year - on - year [5]. - The January USDA forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December forecast but an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points from the December forecast but an increase of 0.62 percentage points from the previous year [5]. - As of the week of January 8, the US current - year cotton export sales were 80,600 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.6231 million tons, a decrease of 191,000 tons year - on - year [7]. Strategy - In the medium - to - long - term, due to the reduction of planting area in the new season and positive macro - economic expectations, cotton prices have room to rise. However, due to the recent sharp increase, it needs time to digest, so it's recommended to wait for a correction before going long [8] Protein Meal Market Information - On Wednesday, the protein meal futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2725 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed meal contract was 2228 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day [10]. - In 2025, China's total soybean imports were 111.8 million tons, a 6.5% year - on - year increase. Brazil supplied 82.32 million tons, a 10.3% year - on - year increase, and the US supplied 16.82 million tons, a 24% year - on - year decrease [11]. - As of the week of January 8, the US exported 2.06 million tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative exports were 30.64 million tons. The US exported 1.22 million tons of soybeans to China that week, and the current - year cumulative exports to China were 8.12 million tons [11]. - As of the week of January 16, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.5 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous week. The sample soybean port inventory was 7.72 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous week [11]. Strategy - The January USDA report is slightly bearish. Although China's increased purchase of US soybeans supports CBOT soybean prices, it is bearish for domestic meal prices. The possible reduction of the import tax rate of Canadian rapeseed is also a major negative for domestic rapeseed prices. With protein meal prices at previous lows and many negative news, short - term fluctuations will increase, so it's better to wait and see [12] Oils Market Information - On Wednesday, the oils futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 8044 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 0.15% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May palm oil contract was 8832 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton or 0.96% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed oil contract was 8947 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.01% from the previous trading day [14]. - From January 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 16.06% month - on - month, the fresh fruit bunch yield decreased by 16.49%, and the oil extraction rate increased by 0.08% [14]. - As of the week of January 16, the domestic inventory of the three major oils was 1.98 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week [14]. - Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of December increased by 7.56% month - on - month to 3.05 million tons, higher than the expected 2.97 million tons. Production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons, higher than the estimated 1.76 million tons. Exports increased by 8.52% month - on - month to 1.32 million tons, better than the expected 1.25 million tons [16]. Strategy - The current fundamentals of palm oil are weak with high production, low exports, and high inventory. But in the long - term, with the expected reduction of Malaysian production, Indonesia's confiscation of illegal plantations, and the expected increase in US biodiesel soybean oil consumption in 2026, the outlook is optimistic. Short - term waiting is recommended [17] Eggs Market Information - Most egg prices across the country remained stable, with a few rising or falling. The average price in the main production areas remained at 3.65 yuan/jin. The supply was stable, the downstream sales speed was normal, and most traders were more confident in the future. The inventory at different levels varied, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased. It is expected that most egg prices across the country will remain stable, with a few rising [19]. Strategy - In the short - term, the near - month contracts may fluctuate within a limited range due to sufficient supply and the approaching seasonal price increase. The far - end contracts have long - term positive expectations but face uncertainties, so pay attention to the pressure after over - valuation [20] Pigs Market Information - The domestic pig price mainly declined. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.28 yuan to 13.07 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.21 yuan to 12.81 yuan/kg. The demand in the south was insufficient to support the market, and the market transaction rate was poor. Pig farmers may continue to cut prices, and the pig price may decline. The temperature drop in the north may stimulate demand, and the room for further price decline may be limited. It is expected that the pig price will be stable in some areas and decline in others [22]. Strategy - In the short - term, low prices and the festival effect stimulate consumption, and the large spread between fat and standard pigs leads to hoarding, supporting the near - month contracts. In the medium - term, the large supply base and the risk of inventory accumulation may still put pressure on far - end prices [23]