铜冠金源期货商品日报-20260122

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, Trump's speech in Davos and agreements on Greenland and NATO, along with the US Supreme Court's decision, led to the resurgence of the "TACO trade," affecting the dollar, gold, silver, US bonds, stocks, and commodities [2]. - Domestically, the 2025 economic data was better than expected, with A - shares showing a positive mid - term trend despite short - term adjustments [3]. - Different commodities have different trends. For example, precious metals' gold - silver ratio is expected to rise, copper prices will adjust in the short term, aluminum prices will fluctuate at high levels, etc. [4][6][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Situation - Overseas: Trump defined Greenland as a US core security interest, reached a "future agreement framework" with NATO on Greenland and Arctic security, postponed the February 1 tariff measures, and the US Supreme Court maintained the ban on immediately dismissing Fed Governor Cook. The "TACO trade" reappeared, with the dollar index rebounding to 98.8, gold and silver retreating, the 10 - year US Treasury yield falling to 4.24%, and US stocks rising over 1% after sharp fluctuations [2]. - Domestic: The 2025 economic data was better than expected, with export resilience exceeding expectations, consumption falling as expected, and investment being a short - term drag. Fiscal and monetary policies will moderately support the economy in Q1. A - shares rose on Wednesday, with the Sci - tech Innovation 50 leading the gain by over 3%, and the market entering a stage of volume - shrinking and differentiation [3]. Precious Metals - On Wednesday, COMEX gold futures rose 1.48% to $4836.20 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.78% to $92.95 per ounce. LBMA predicted that the average silver price in 2026 would reach $79.57 per ounce. However, after the explosive growth in 2025, the market is over - inflated. The gold - silver ratio is at a 50 - year low and is expected to rise, with gold outperforming silver in the short term [4][5]. Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper's main contract weakened, and LME copper sought support at $12,700. Trump's agreement with NATO on Greenland reduced market risk - aversion, causing copper prices to adjust downward. High copper prices dragged down domestic demand, and the global visible inventory increased. In the short term, copper prices will adjust, but the adjustment range may be limited [6][7]. Aluminum - On Wednesday, Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 24,155 yuan/ton, up 0.56%. The easing of geopolitical tensions and the increase in downstream purchases during price adjustments limited the decline of aluminum prices. The position in the Shanghai aluminum market rebounded, and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [8][9]. Alumina - On Wednesday, the main alumina futures contract closed at 2,672 yuan/ton, down 0.71%. A Henan alumina plant's maintenance had limited impact on production. The import window remained open, inventory continued to accumulate, and alumina supply remained in surplus, continuing its weak trend [10]. Cast Aluminum - On Wednesday, the main cast aluminum alloy futures contract closed at 22,895 yuan/ton, up 0.42%. The cost of scrap aluminum did not decline further, and there was a game between supply and demand in the market. Cast aluminum prices will remain volatile [11]. Zinc - Trump's agreement on Greenland reduced risk - aversion, and the dollar rebounded, putting pressure on zinc prices. Teck's downward adjustment of the production guidance for the Antamina mine in 2026 and supply disruptions from the Iran situation tightened the supply of zinc ore. However, it is currently the consumption off - season, and high - priced raw materials suppress demand. Zinc prices will remain volatile [12][13][14]. Lead - Downstream battery enterprises' weak purchasing sentiment and high inventory suppressed lead prices. However, some smelters plan to increase production cuts, which will ease the decline in lead prices. Lead prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [15]. Tin - Trump's agreement on Greenland reduced market risk - aversion, and the dollar rebounded, causing tin prices to give back some gains. High - level inventories decreased, but downstream demand for high - priced raw materials was weak. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels, with macro - sentiment leading the price movement [16]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Wednesday, steel futures fluctuated. Affected by seasonal demand, market transactions weakened. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate [17]. Iron Ore - On Wednesday, iron ore futures fluctuated. Supply remained high, and port inventory increased. Demand was weak in the off - season. Although there was an expectation of pre - holiday inventory replenishment, the overall supply was stronger than demand, and iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate [18]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double Coking) - On Wednesday, double coking futures fluctuated and adjusted. The supply of coking coal and coke was loose due to coal mine resumption, while downstream demand was weak. The supply - demand contradiction was prominent, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [19]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Wednesday, the soybean meal 05 contract fell 0.04%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract rose 0.36%. Argentina's soybean - producing areas may turn dry, which may affect yields. Domestic pre - holiday inventory replenishment and oil mills' price - holding intentions support the market. Soybean meal prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels [20]. Palm Oil - On Wednesday, the palm oil 05 contract rose 1.28%. From January 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 16.06% month - on - month. Supply contraction and inventory reduction are expected to support palm oil prices, which are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [21][22].