国新国证期货早报-20260122

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on January 21, 2026 - A - share major indices closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.08% at 4116.94, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.70% at 14255.13, the ChiNext Index up 0.54% at 3295.52, and the STAR 50 Index up 3.53% at 1535.39. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2624 billion yuan, a decrease of 180.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 Index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4723.07, up 4.19 [2] 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - On January 21, the coke weighted - index oscillated weakly, closing at 1685.6, down 10.1; the coking coal weighted - index was weakly sorted, closing at 1135.4 yuan, down 20.8 [2][3] - For coke, coke enterprises'开工 declined, and the total coke inventory was at a low level in the same period; blast furnace 开工 and daily hot - metal output decreased. Mainstream coke enterprises planned to raise prices on January 19, and the negotiation was still ongoing. For coking coal, the supply - side production capacity recovered, Mongolian coal customs clearance was at a high level, and raw coal inventory accumulated. The steel and coke load on the demand side declined, hot - metal output decreased, coke enterprises' losses expanded, and steel mills' profits increased. The price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was reported at 1390 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1305 yuan/ton on the futures market [4] 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the weak performance of the commodity market, US sugar oscillated lower on Tuesday. Constrained by factors such as the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, the short - sellers pressured the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract to oscillate downward on Wednesday. Due to the large short - term decline, affected by technical factors, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract oscillated and adjusted slightly lower at night. Brazil exported 1.4366 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first three weeks of January, an increase of 0.1197 million tons or 9.09% compared with the same period last year, with a daily average export volume of 130,600 tons [4] 2.3 Rubber - Boosted by factors such as a large short - term decline and the rebound of crude oil, Shanghai rubber oscillated upward on Wednesday. At night, the futures price of Shanghai rubber fluctuated little and closed slightly higher. As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, an increase of 16,700 tons or 2.94% from the previous period. The bonded - area inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%; the general - trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26% [4] 2.4 Palm Oil - Palm oil futures continued to rise. The main contract P2605 closed with a positive K - line, with the highest price of 8850, the lowest price of 8752, and the closing price of 8832, up 0.96% from the previous day. From January 1 - 20, 2026, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 16.49% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.08% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 16.06% month - on - month [5] 2.5 Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper opened low and went low, and turned slightly positive at the end of the session, maintaining a high - level oscillation overall. The main continuous contract opened at 101,020 yuan/ton, reached a low of 99,210 yuan/ton during the day, and closed at 101,280 yuan/ton, with a settlement price of 100,420 yuan/ton, a position of 224,000, and a trading volume of 230,300 lots. On the supply side, the processing fee of copper concentrates continued to weaken, the profits of smelters were under pressure, 5 smelters planned to stop production in January, and the commissioning of a new plant was postponed, so the refined copper output was expected to decline month - on - month; the substitution of scrap copper increased, but raw material procurement was cautious. On the demand side, downstream enterprises' willingness to stock up before the Spring Festival was weak, the purchase of copper products was insufficient; the terminal sales of new - energy vehicles decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, dragging down the demand expectation; short - term inventory accumulated, and spot sales were sluggish. The short - term weakness of the US dollar provided slight support for copper prices, but the uncertainty of US tariff policies remained [5] 2.6 Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,550 yuan/ton on Wednesday night. The cotton inventory decreased by 4 lots compared with the previous trading day. According to the report of China National Cotton Reserves Corporation, the cotton planting area in Brazil reached 40%, and the expected output was 10% less than last year [5] 2.7 Iron Ore - On January 21, the main contract of iron ore 2605 oscillated and closed down, with a decline of 0.32% and a closing price of 784 yuan. The shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore and the domestic arrival volume both decreased this period, the port inventory continued to accumulate, some steel mills in certain regions were still in the annual maintenance stage, the hot - metal output decreased, and it was in a situation of weak supply and demand. The iron ore price was in an oscillating trend in the short term [5] 2.8 Asphalt - On January 21, the main contract of asphalt 2603 oscillated and closed up, with a rise of 0.45% and a closing price of 3157 yuan. The asphalt output increased, the inventory continued to accumulate, but the overall supply pressure was not large. As the weather cooled down, the market's rigid demand would become dull, and it would mostly turn into stocking demand. The asphalt price showed an oscillating operation in the short term [5] 2.9 Logs - The main contract of logs 2603 opened at 753.5 on Wednesday, with the lowest price of 751.5, the highest price of 767, and closed at 764, with an increase of 43 lots in positions. Attention should be paid to the support from the spot side. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 760 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. There was no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the spot - side price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expected market sentiment for the price [5][6] 2.10 Steel - On January 21, rb2605 was reported at 3117 yuan/ton, and hc2605 was reported at 3286 yuan/ton. Affected by the large - scale cold snap and freezing weather, the trading volume in the steel market had been declining for several days. The enthusiasm for winter stocking this year had weakened. The psychological price for winter stocking of Shandong trading enterprises was 3050 - 3080 yuan/ton (ex - factory). In the situation of weak supply and demand in the steel market, steel prices were under pressure. With the improvement of the weather, the trading volume of low - price resources might increase in the future. Coupled with the front - loaded implementation of fiscal and monetary policies, the market had certain expectations for the post - Spring Festival market, and the decline space of steel prices might be limited. In the short term, the downward trend of steel prices was expected to stabilize [6][7] 2.11 Alumina - On January 21, ao2605 was reported at 2672 yuan/ton. The weekly production capacity utilization rate of domestic alumina had increased for two consecutive weeks, and imported goods continued to flow in, so the domestic oversupply situation continued. Although there was a marginal increase in demand, it was difficult to digest the excess supply. At the same time, the spot price of alumina was in a downward channel, and the prices of caustic soda and ore on the cost side were also falling. The weakening cost support reduced enterprises' willingness to cut production. Before the Spring Festival, the supply side would maintain an oversupply pattern. In the spot market, holders accelerated the shipment to recover funds due to concerns about price drops, but downstream enterprises held a cautious and wait - and - see attitude, the inquiry atmosphere in the market was cold, and most only maintained rigid - demand replenishment. The overall trading activity was poor today, and the whole - day trading volume was limited [7] 2.12 Shanghai Aluminum - On January 21, al2603 was reported at 24,155 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the newly invested production capacity of electrolytic aluminum at home and abroad continued to ramp up, and the daily output increased steadily. On the demand side, there was a structural differentiation. The primary alloy and aluminum plate and foil industries saw a slight increase in the utilization rate due to year - end stocking and the peak consumption season, providing some rigid demand. However, the high price suppression and seasonal off - season effects still existed, the proportion of electrolytic aluminum liquid continued to decline month - on - month, indicating that the overall recovery momentum of terminal consumption was insufficient, and the inventory pressure was further highlighted, with no obvious improvement overall. Although the domestic macro - policy support expectation provided downward support for aluminum prices, the fundamental situation of loose supply, weak demand, and inventory accumulation formed a bearish combination. Coupled with the sentiment suppression brought by the risk of Sino - European and Sino - American trade frictions, the short - term upward resistance of aluminum prices was significant [7]