期货市场交易指引2026年01月22日-20260122

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are bullish in the long - term and suggest buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade in a range [1] - Black Building Materials: Coking coal suggests short - term trading; Rebar suggests range trading; Glass suggests selling on rallies [1] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper suggests closing long positions on rallies and waiting; Aluminum suggests strengthening observation; Nickel suggests waiting and seeing; Tin suggests range trading or taking profits on previous long positions; Gold suggests range trading; Silver is expected to be relatively strong; Lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1] - Energy Chemicals: PVC suggests a low - buying strategy; Caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary waiting; Styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol suggest range trading; Polyolefins are expected to be weakly volatile [1] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to adjust in a range; Apples and jujubes are expected to be weakly volatile [1] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Pigs suggest waiting for rallies to short; Eggs suggest not shorting in the short - term; Corn suggests caution when chasing highs and waiting for rallies to hedge; Soybean meal suggests shorting on rallies; Oils and fats are expected to be weakly volatile [1] Core Views The report provides trading guidance for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the current situation, future trends, and trading strategies for each product [1] Summary by Category Macro Finance - Index Futures: In the long - term, they are bullish. Due to reduced geopolitical disturbances, they may trade in a range. It is recommended to buy on dips [1][5] - Treasury Bonds: They are expected to trade in a range. There is a relay from trading to allocation, with yields on the long - end falling more [5] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: It is expected to trade in a range. Due to weak fundamentals and high inventory pressure, short - term trading is recommended [6][7] - Rebar: It is expected to trade in a range. With neutral valuation and short - term supply - demand balance, range trading is the main strategy [7] - Glass: It is expected to be weakly volatile. With inventory transfer to the middle - stream and weakening demand, it is recommended to sell on rallies [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: It is expected to fall after rising. With short - term support weakening and inventory increasing, it is recommended to close long positions on rallies [10][11] - Aluminum: It is expected to trade at a high level. With supply increasing and demand entering the off - season, it is recommended to strengthen observation [13] - Nickel: It is expected to trade in a range. With a mixed fundamental situation and full market pricing, it is recommended to wait and see [14][15] - Tin: It is expected to trade in a range. With tight supply and stable demand, range trading or taking profits on previous long positions is recommended [16] - Silver: It is expected to be relatively strong. Due to geopolitical tensions and economic data trends, it is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious when opening new positions [17] - Gold: It is expected to trade in a range. Affected by geopolitical and economic factors, range trading is recommended and chasing highs should be cautious [17] - Lithium Carbonate: It is expected to trade in a range. With supply and demand factors in balance, price volatility is expected to continue [18] Energy Chemicals - PVC: The bottom may have been reached. With weak domestic demand and high inventory, but low valuation and potential policy support, a long - term low - buying strategy is recommended [18][20] - Caustic Soda: It is expected to trade at a low level. With high supply and weak demand, it is recommended to wait and see [20] - Styrene: It is expected to trade in a range. With high valuation and uncertain cost - supply - demand improvement, range trading is recommended [21][22] - Rubber: It is expected to trade in a range. With supply reduction and inventory increase, and no obvious driving force, range trading is recommended [22][23] - Urea: It is expected to trade in a range. With supply increasing and demand stable, it is recommended to trade within a range of 1730 - 1830 [24][25] - Methanol: It is expected to trade in a range. With supply recovery and weak traditional demand, and some regions being strong, range trading is recommended [25] - Polyolefins: They are expected to be weakly volatile. With cost support and inventory transfer, the upside is limited, and shorting on rallies is recommended [26][27] - Soda Ash: It is recommended to wait and see. With supply contraction and cost support, the downside may be limited [28] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: They are expected to adjust in a range. With production reduction and consumption increase, short - term caution and long - term optimism are recommended [29] - Apples: They are expected to be weakly volatile. With slow sales in the main production areas and price fluctuations [29] - Jujubes: They are expected to be weakly volatile. With the end of raw material acquisition in Xinjiang and stable market transactions [31] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Pigs: They are expected to form a bottom in a range. With high supply pressure in the short - term and slow capacity reduction in the long - term, shorting on rallies and hedging on profits are recommended [31][33] - Eggs: They are expected to rebound from a low level. With low - level spot price increase and uncertain long - term supply, shorting should be cautious and hedging on rallies can be considered [33][34] - Corn: It is expected to correct from a high level. With short - term supply - demand balance and long - term supply being relatively loose, caution when chasing highs and hedging on rallies are recommended [35][36] - Soybean Meal: It is expected to trade at a low level. With short - term support and long - term pressure, shorting on rallies is recommended [37][38] - Oils and Fats: The rebound is limited. With different supply - demand situations for different varieties, short - term caution when chasing highs and spread trading are recommended [38][43]