有色金属日报-20260122

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The sentiment in the precious metals market has cooled down due to the easing of geopolitical tensions and tariff expectations. The copper market is expected to experience short - term shock adjustments due to tight copper ore supply, relatively strong LME spot, and relatively surplus refined copper supply. The aluminum market has support in the short - term due to high US aluminum spot premiums, low LME aluminum inventories, and expected improvement in demand. The casting aluminum alloy is expected to be in shock consolidation due to strong cost support and general demand. The lead and zinc markets will follow the ebb of the non - ferrous metal sector to give back some gains, but the non - ferrous metal sector is still considered bullish in the medium - term. The tin market may fluctuate due to marginal improvement in supply and demand and short - term inventory accumulation. The nickel market is expected to have a wide - range shock. The lithium carbonate market has a rebound, but there are risks of correction. The alumina market is recommended to wait and see due to over - capacity and cost support decline. The stainless steel market is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short - term [3][6][9][11][14][17][19][23][26][29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Market Information: The price of copper followed the precious metals to rise and then fall. LME copper 3M closed down 0.27% to $12,761/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,420 yuan/ton. LME copper inventories increased by 3,100 tons to 159,400 tons, and the domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts decreased by 0.3 tons to 146,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai and Guangdong was at a discount to the futures, and the import of refined copper was at a loss. The spread between refined and scrap copper narrowed slightly [2]. - Strategic View: The short - term copper price is expected to be in shock adjustment. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 99,000 - 102,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $12,600 - 13,000/ton [3]. Aluminum - Market Information: The price of aluminum also followed the precious metals to rise and then fall. LME aluminum closed slightly down 0.03% to $3,117/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,100 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased by 15,000 hands to 714,000 hands, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 tons to 139,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories decreased, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory increased by 24,000 tons to 508,000 tons [5]. - Strategic View: The short - term aluminum price still has support. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 23,900 - 24,300 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,080 - 3,150/ton [6]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The price of the casting aluminum alloy fluctuated. The main AD2603 contract closed up 0.57% to 22,895 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position decreased to 23,000 hands, and the trading volume was 12,100 hands. The warehouse receipts decreased by 0.02 tons to 68,900 tons. The spread between the AL2603 and AD2603 contracts widened. The domestic mainstream ADC12 average price was flat, and the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots in three places decreased by 0.03 tons to 42,800 tons [9]. - Strategic View: The short - term price is expected to be in shock consolidation [9]. Lead - Market Information: The Shanghai lead index closed down 0.63% to 17,121 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell by $19 to $2,039/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,875 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread was 100 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 27,600 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 225,600 tons. The national main market lead ingot social inventory increased by 0.2 tons to 29,400 tons [10]. - Strategic View: The lead price gave back some gains with the ebb of the non - ferrous metal sector. The non - ferrous metal sector is still considered bullish in the medium - term, and the subsequent trends of leading varieties and the Shanghai - London ratio need to be observed [11][12]. Zinc - Market Information: The Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.25% to 24,355 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell by $33 to $3,194/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 24,210 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 31,000 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 112,300 tons. The national main market zinc ingot social inventory increased by 0.57 tons to 112,100 tons [13]. - Strategic View: The zinc price gave back some gains with the ebb of the non - ferrous metal sector. The non - ferrous metal sector is still considered bullish in the medium - term, and the zinc price has a large room for a supplementary rise compared with copper and aluminum. The subsequent trends of leading varieties and the Shanghai - London ratio need to be observed [14]. Tin - Market Information: On January 21, the tin price continued to rebound, and the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 418,420 yuan/ton, up 4.2%. The smelting start - up rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi were generally high and stable, but the supply was difficult to increase significantly in the short - term. The demand was suppressed by the sharp rise in prices, and the inventory increased [15][16]. - Strategic View: The tin price may fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 380,000 - 430,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $47,000 - 53,000/ton [17]. Nickel - Market Information: On January 21, the nickel price fluctuated narrowly, and the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 143,060 yuan/ton, up 1.2%. The spot premiums of different brands varied. The nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel iron price rose significantly [18]. - Strategic View: The Shanghai nickel is expected to have a wide - range shock in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term reference range for the Shanghai nickel price is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $16,000 - 19,000/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate rose 4.91%. The LC2605 contract closed at 166,740 yuan, up 3.89% [21]. - Strategic View: The rebound of lithium carbonate continues, but there are risks of correction. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 158,000 - 174,000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - Market Information: On January 21, the alumina index rose 0.04% to 2,667 yuan/ton. The trading position decreased by 16,300 hands. The domestic spot was at a discount to the main contract, and the overseas FOB price decreased. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.3 tons to 119,100 tons [25]. - Strategic View: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,600 - 2,750 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [26]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: On Wednesday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 14,720 yuan/ton, up 2.61%. The position increased by 27,595 hands. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets rose, and the raw material prices were stable or increased. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased by 2.13% [28][29]. - Strategic View: The stainless steel market is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short - term, and the price may be in a high - level shock pattern. The reference range for the main contract is 14,200 - 15,230 yuan/ton [29].