Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It assesses the supply - demand situation, price trends, and offers trading strategies for each sector, taking into account factors such as geopolitical events, seasonal patterns, and policy changes. Summary by Category Financial Derivatives - Core Viewpoint: The stock index shows differentiation and resilience. Although the ETF trading volume of broad - based indexes is abnormal, it does not affect market activity. The CSI 500 index is relatively strong, and the stock index is expected to fluctuate. [20][21] - Trading Strategy: Short - term grid operation for single - side trading; IM\IC long 2606 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; double - selling strategy for options. [22] Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: Supply - side pressure is high, and the market rebounds slightly. It is recommended to take a bearish view on single - side trading, expand the MRM spread in arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options. [24][25] - Sugar: International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak in the short term but with limited downward space. It is advisable to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [28][29] - Oilseeds and Oils: The US biofuel policy is expected to boost the market. Oils are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to use high - selling and low - buying interval operations for single - side trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [31][32] - Corn/Corn Starch: The US corn is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and the domestic corn spot is stable in the short term but under pressure in the long term. For single - side trading, a bullish view on the US 03 corn after stabilization and short - selling on the domestic 03 corn at high prices; for arbitrage, widen the spread between 05 corn and starch and conduct a 35 - starch reverse spread. [33][34][35] - Hogs: Supply pressure increases, and the spot price continues to decline. It is recommended to take a bearish view on single - side trading and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options. [36][37][38] - Peanuts: The spot price is stable, and the market oscillates at the bottom. For single - side trading, go long on the 05 contract at low prices; for options, sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option. [39][40] - Eggs: As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot price rises, but the upward space of the 03 contract is limited. It is recommended to go long on the 5 - month far - month contract for single - side trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [43][44][45] - Apples: The pre - festival sales are good, and the price is firm. For single - side trading, go long on the May contract at low prices and short - sell the October contract at high prices; for arbitrage, go long on the May contract and short - sell the October contract. [47][48][49] - Cotton - Cotton Yarn: The short - term cotton price is expected to oscillate in the range, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [51][52] Black Metals - Steel: Demand is marginally weakening, and steel prices continue to oscillate. For single - side trading, the steel price stabilizes in the short term and oscillates at the bottom; for arbitrage, short - sell the coil - coal ratio at high prices and continue to hold the short - selling of the coil - screw spread. [54][55] - Coking Coal and Coke: The fundamentals are lackluster, and the market sentiment is weakening. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and partially take profit on the previous strategy of selling out - of - the - money call options for options. [56][57] - Iron Ore: Market expectations are fluctuating, and ore prices are running weakly. It is recommended to take a bearish view on single - side trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [59][60][61] - Ferroalloys: After adjustment, the bottom support is strong. For single - side trading, consider ferroalloys as long - position options when the price is low; for options, sell put options at high prices. [62][63] Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold and Silver: Due to the turning of risk events, gold and silver prices retreat. For single - side trading, short - term investors in Shanghai gold can take profit at high prices, and long - term investors can hold with the 5 - day moving average as support; for options, buy out - of - the - money call options for Shanghai gold and take profit at high prices. [65][66][67] - Platinum and Palladium: TACO pushes up the US dollar index, and precious metal prices are under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options. [68][69] - Copper: The upward momentum weakens, and copper prices consolidate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options. [71][72][73] - Alumina: It mainly oscillates weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the trading activity after the price continues to fall. [77] - Electrolytic Aluminum: Market sentiment fluctuates, and aluminum prices oscillate and stabilize. For single - side trading, it is expected to be strong in the medium term; it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [79][80] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It oscillates at a high level with the sector. For single - side trading, it oscillates and stabilizes; it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [81] - Zinc: Pay attention to changes in domestic social inventories. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options. [83][84][85] - Lead: Pay attention to capital sentiment. For single - side trading, go long lightly at low prices near the 17000 - 17200 support level; it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [88][89] - Nickel: Optimistic sentiment remains, and nickel prices consolidate at a high level. For single - side trading, take a long - position view with a low - buying strategy; it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [92] - Stainless Steel: Supply and demand are tight, and prices are firm. For single - side trading, take a long - position view with a low - buying strategy; it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage. [95][96] - Industrial Silicon: Production - cut news is spreading, but coking coal drags down the market. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. [96][97] - Polysilicon: Spot trading is at a standstill. Pay attention to the meeting this week. It is recommended to wait and see. [98][99] - Lithium Carbonate: It is running at a high level. Be cautious in operation. For single - side trading, buy at low prices; it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [101][102][104] - Tin: Pay attention to capital conditions. For single - side trading, go long after the callback stabilizes; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options. [106][107][108] Shipping - Container Shipping: Spot freight rates continue to decline, and the geopolitical situation has escalated. For single - side trading, wait and see due to many short - term disturbances; for arbitrage, hold the 6 - 10 positive spread. [109][110] Energy Chemicals - Crude Oil: Cold snaps in Europe and the US drive up oil prices. It is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [112] - Asphalt: Demand is declining, and geopolitics is still the main driver. For single - side trading, the main 03 contract oscillates strongly; for arbitrage, pay attention to the BU4 - 6 positive spread. [114][115][116] - Fuel Oil: The cost oscillates. Pay attention to the supply rhythm of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils. For single - side trading, it oscillates strongly, and beware of geopolitical risks; for arbitrage, pay attention to the FU59 positive spread. [117][118] - LPG: Propane still has support. It is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [119][120] - Natural Gas: TTF/JKM is strong in the short term, and HH is in a short - squeeze situation. For single - side trading, hold the short positions in the third - quarter TTF or JKM contracts and consider adding positions for aggressive investors; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options of TTF or JKM. [122][123][125] - PX&PTA: Polyester production cuts are increasing. It is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [127][128] - BZ&EB: The transaction of South Korean pure benzene to the US Gulf is good, and the supply of styrene decreases due to accidental plant shutdowns. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. For options, sell put options. [128][129][130] - Ethylene Glycol: Seasonal inventory accumulation is obvious, and the price is falling weakly. For single - side trading, it is expected to oscillate weakly; for options, sell call options. [131][133] - Short - Fiber: Supply is sufficient, and terminal demand is weakening. It is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [134][135] - Bottle Chips: Maintenance accelerates in late January. It is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [136][138] - Propylene: Supply pressure is relieved. It is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [140][141][142] - Plastic PP: Hold long positions. For single - side trading, hold long positions in the L 2605 and PP 2605 contracts. [144][145] - Caustic Soda: The price is weakening. It is expected to have a weak trend. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [146][147][148] - PVC: It oscillates weakly. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. [149][150] - Soda Ash: The futures price is falling. It is recommended to short - sell at an appropriate time. It is expected to have a weak trend. [151][152][153] - Glass: The futures price is falling. It is recommended to short - sell at an appropriate time before the Spring Festival. [155][156] - Methanol: Geopolitical tensions ease, and it oscillates narrowly. For single - side trading, short - sell in the short term; for arbitrage, pay attention to the 59 positive spread; for options, sell put options on the callback. [161][162] - Urea: It oscillates. It is recommended to operate cautiously. [163][164] - Pulp: The pulp price oscillates weakly. Hold short positions. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [166][167][169] - Logs: The spot price is stable and slightly strong. For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy a small amount near the low point of last month; for arbitrage, close the LG03 - 05 reverse spread and switch to a positive spread. [170][171] - Offset Printing Paper: Inventory is high, and the rebound of cultural paper is weak. For options, sell the OP2602 - C - 4200 option. [173][174] - Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber: The import volume of Indian - standard rubber decreases significantly. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options. [175][177] - Butadiene Rubber: Domestic automobile inventory accumulates both monthly and yearly. For single - side trading, wait and see; for arbitrage, hold the BR2605 - RU2605 spread with a stop - loss at - 4000. [179][180]
银河期货每日早盘观察-20260122
Yin He Qi Huo·2026-01-22 01:29