Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In the stock index futures market, the switching speed of strong sectors is relatively fast. Although the market is expected to rise before the Two Sessions, caution is needed regarding the upward rate, and the subsequent market trend will be upward with fluctuations. The increasing uncertainty in global liquidity, regulatory cooling, and escalating geopolitical risks affect the upward rate of A-shares. In this uncertain environment, the allocation value of non-ferrous metals and precious metals is enhanced, which is beneficial for the inflation expectation and indirectly boosts the value of CSI 500 [1][6]. - In the stock index options market, the trading volume of most varieties has declined. The hedging sentiment in the market may have slowed down. It is recommended to adopt a hedging strategy by selling call options on the basis of an equity bottom position [2][6]. - In the treasury bond futures market, the demand for medium - and long - term bonds has improved, and the yield curve has flattened. The sentiment in the medium - and long - term bond market has continued to recover. In the short term, the end of the tax period and the possible lower - than - planned issuance of local bonds in January may support the performance of ultra - long - term bonds, but the change in market risk preference needs to be continuously monitored [2][7]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Outlook - Stock Index Futures: The view is that the switching speed of strong sectors is fast. The logic is that the market sentiment has eased, but the rapid rotation of strong sectors affects the profit - making effect, and the market volume has shrunk. The outlook is oscillating and slightly bullish, and the operation suggestion is to hold IC [6]. - Stock Index Options: The view is to focus on hedging defense. The logic is that the trading volume has declined, and the hedging sentiment has slowed down. The outlook is oscillating, and the operation suggestion is hedging [6]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The view is that the demand for medium - and long - term bonds has improved, and the curve has flattened. The logic is that the sentiment in the medium - and long - term bond market has recovered due to factors such as the central bank's reverse - repurchase net injection, good issuance of 7Y treasury bonds, and reduced redemption pressure of bond funds. The outlook is oscillating. Operation suggestions include trend strategy (oscillating), hedging strategy (pay attention to short - hedging at low basis), basis strategy (pay attention to TL positive arbitrage opportunities), and curve strategy (the curve may flatten first and then steepen) [7]. 2. Derivatives Market Monitoring - Stock Index Futures Data: No specific content is provided in the given text. - Stock Index Options Data: No specific content is provided in the given text. - Treasury Bond Futures Data: No specific content is provided in the given text.
股指期货:强势板块切换速度较快,股指期权:备兑防御为主
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2026-01-22 01:25