棕榈油增仓上行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of oilseeds such as soybeans and rapeseeds is relatively abundant. Palm oil has a high annual output and is about to enter the production - reduction season with a de - stocking trend. The market is currently intertwined with multiple long and short factors, but positive expectations and a warming macro - atmosphere are driving the continuous rebound of the oil market. It is recommended to consider staged buy - hedging after price corrections and a long - palm - oil and short - rapeseed - oil arbitrage strategy [2][5] - For protein meal, the international soybean supply is expected to increase, and the US soybean is expected to fluctuate. In the domestic market, the price of soybean meal is expected to remain firm before the Spring Festival, but there is a need to be vigilant against the weakening of futures prices due to the repair of discounts under high - profit conditions. Rapeseed meal is expected to be weaker than soybean meal and fluctuate weakly [7] - The corn market is in a state of game between the policy ceiling and the demand floor, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. The market is affected by supply pressure, downstream demand, and policy grain auctions [10] - The supply of live pigs is abundant, and the price continues to decline. In the short term, there is a risk of concentrated inventory release before the Spring Festival, and the fundamentals will remain weak after the festival. It is expected that the pig cycle will gradually bottom out and pick up in the second half of 2026 [12][13] - The natural rubber market has effective short - term bottom support, and the market rebounds slightly. In the medium term, the idea of buying on dips is maintained, and the short - term market may return to a wide - range fluctuation [15] - The synthetic rubber market is driven by the sector's performance and the market rebounds. In the short term, there is pressure above and may require adjustment, while in the medium term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [17] - The cotton price is in an adjustment period in the short term, but in the long - term, based on the expected tight balance sheet and the reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly and it is recommended to buy on dips [18] - The sugar price continues to adjust downward. Due to the expected oversupply in the new sugar - making season globally, the sugar price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and a strategy of shorting on rebounds is maintained [18] - The pulp futures continue to move sideways, and the spot price slowly declines. Due to seasonal weakening of demand and abundant liquidity of softwood pulp, the pulp futures are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [19] - The double - offset paper market maintains a low - level fluctuation. With the end of publishing orders and weak social demand, the double - offset paper is expected to fluctuate weakly [21] - The log market rebounds from a low valuation. After the negative factors in the delivery aspect are digested and the spot price rises, the log market is expected to operate within a range in the short term [22][23] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Oils and Fats - Viewpoint: Palm oil increases in position and rises, leading the oil market [1][5] - Logic: Palm oil is in the production - reduction stage, with good export performance. From January 1 - 20, the production in Malaysia decreased by 16.06% month - on - month, and the export volume from January 1 - 20 increased by 8.6% - 11.4% month - on - month. The US soybean oil is affected by arbitrage unlocking in the short term, but the upcoming clarification of US biofuel policies and rising international oil prices limit its decline. The supply of rapeseed oil is expected to become more abundant in the future, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][5] - Outlook: Soybean oil fluctuates, palm oil fluctuates, and rapeseed oil fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to consider staged buy - hedging after price corrections and a long - palm - oil and short - rapeseed - oil arbitrage strategy [2][5] 3.2. Protein Meal - Viewpoint: The spot price drops slightly, and the market fluctuates at a low level [7] - Logic: Internationally, the Argentine soybean sowing is nearly complete, and the US soybean demand and压榨 performance are strong. China has purchased a large amount of US soybeans, and the overseas soybean supply is expected to increase. Domestically, the spot price of soybean meal drops slightly, and the low - priced rapeseed meal attracts downstream purchases, supporting the market [7] - Outlook: The US soybean, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal all fluctuate. Rapeseed meal is expected to be weaker than soybean meal and fluctuate weakly [7] 3.3. Corn and Starch - Viewpoint: The game between the policy ceiling and the demand floor continues, and the market fluctuates [10] - Logic: The supply in the Northeast is tight, while the supply in North China increases after the weather improves. The upstream is reluctant to sell, and the downstream feed enterprises maintain a stable inventory, while the deep - processing enterprises have low inventory and need to stock up before the Spring Festival. Policy grain auctions will gradually stabilize prices [10] - Outlook: The market is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the release of supply pressure and downstream stocking [10][11] 3.4. Live Pigs - Viewpoint: The supply is abundant, and the price continues to decline [11] - Logic: In the short term, the early - January slaughter progress is slow, and there may be early sales at the end of January. In the medium term, the supply will remain excessive until April 2026. In the long term, the sow capacity began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. The demand is slightly increasing, and the inventory is slightly accumulating [12] - Outlook: The market fluctuates weakly. There is a risk of concentrated inventory release before the Spring Festival, and the fundamentals will remain weak after the festival. It is recommended to consider short - hedging opportunities for the industry in the first half of the year. The pig cycle is expected to bottom out in the second half of 2026 [13] 3.5. Natural Rubber - Viewpoint: The short - term bottom support is effective, and the market rebounds slightly [15] - Logic: Affected by the warming of the commodity market and the strong performance of synthetic rubber, the natural rubber price rebounds. However, the fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the price increase is mainly driven by macro factors. The overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand is weak after the price rise [15] - Outlook: The fundamentals have limited variables, and the market is not expected to break through the previous high unilaterally. The medium - term idea of buying on dips is maintained, and the short - term market may return to a wide - range fluctuation [15] 3.6. Synthetic Rubber - Viewpoint: Driven by the sector's performance, the market rebounds and rises [16][17] - Logic: The overall risk preference of the commodity market rebounds, and some chemical products rise due to equipment problems. The raw material supply is tight, and the mid - term bullish logic remains unchanged. The price of butadiene has been rising recently [17] - Outlook: The supply - demand pattern of butadiene is expected to improve, but there is short - term pressure. In the medium term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [17] 3.7. Cotton - Viewpoint: The cotton price continues to adjust, and the long - term logic remains unchanged [18] - Logic: In the short term, after the positive policy expectations are realized, the cotton price enters an adjustment period due to factors such as reduced positions and potential increases in imports. In the long term, the cotton balance sheet is expected to be tight, and the planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decrease, supporting the price. The current consumption is good, and the downstream is stocking up before the Spring Festival [18] - Outlook: The market fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips during the adjustment period [18] 3.8. Sugar - Viewpoint: The sugar price continues to adjust downward [18] - Logic: Globally, the 25/26 sugar - making season is expected to be in surplus, with increased production in multiple countries. The domestic supply is also increasing. The price has already reflected the surplus expectation to a large extent, and the downward space is narrowing [18] - Outlook: The market fluctuates weakly. A strategy of shorting on rebounds is maintained [18] 3.9. Pulp - Viewpoint: The futures continue to move sideways, and the spot price slowly declines [19] - Logic: The fundamentals of pulp have not changed significantly. The increase in import costs is a positive factor, while the seasonal weakening of demand, abundant spot liquidity, and the lack of pre - holiday stocking are negative factors. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in a short - term range [19] - Outlook: The market fluctuates weakly due to the weakening of demand and the abundant supply of softwood pulp [19] 3.10. Double - Offset Paper - Viewpoint: The double - offset paper maintains a low - level fluctuation [21] - Logic: The market is basically stable, with some production lines in the South China region shutting down, but the inventory pressure of some paper mills still exists. The publishing orders are coming to an end, and the social demand is weak, making it difficult for paper mills to raise prices [21] - Outlook: The market fluctuates weakly with the end of publishing orders and the weak social demand [21] 3.11. Logs - Viewpoint: The log rebounds from a low valuation [22] - Logic: The futures contract rebounds after hitting the bottom, and the macro - sentiment warms up. The price is in the low - valuation area, and the downward space is limited. The negative factors in the delivery aspect are gradually digested, and the spot price in the Jiangsu market rises due to tight supply [22] - Outlook: The market is expected to operate within a range in the short term after the negative factors in the delivery aspect are digested and the spot price rises [22][23]