招商期货-期货研究报告：商品期货早班车-20260122

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the basic metals sector, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short - term due to the significant off - season characteristics of the consumer end, inventory accumulation, and cautious market sentiment; alumina prices will maintain a weak trend due to future supply surplus pressure; zinc and lead prices are recommended to be shorted on rallies [1]. - In the black industry, the short position of the rebar 2605 contract should be held; iron ore is recommended to be on the sidelines; the short position of the coking coal 2605 contract should be held [2][3]. - In the agricultural products market, soybeans are in the process of finding a bottom; corn futures prices are expected to fluctuate within a range; oils and fats are strong in the short - term; sugar futures should be shorted on rallies and call options should be sold; cotton should be bought on dips; egg and hog prices are expected to be weak [4][5]. - In the energy and chemical industry, LLDPE is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and go long on dips in the medium - term; PVC is recommended to sell 05 and buy 09 for reverse arbitrage; PTA is recommended to take profits appropriately; methanol is expected to fluctuate and adjust; glass is recommended to buy glass and sell soda ash; PP is expected to be weak in the short - term and short on rallies in the medium - term; MEG short positions should be held; crude oil should be shorted on rallies; styrene is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and go long on dips in the medium - term; soda ash is recommended to be on the sidelines [6][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Basic Metals Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.86% to 24,155 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 295 yuan/ton, with the LME price at 3,135 US dollars/ton [1]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly; the weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly [1]. - Trading strategy: Aluminum prices will maintain a fluctuating adjustment in the short - term [1]. Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.04% to 2,672 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 35 yuan/ton [1]. - Fundamentals: The operating capacity of alumina plants remained stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [1]. - Trading strategy: Alumina prices will maintain a weak trend [1]. Zinc and Lead - Market performance: On January 21, the zinc and lead main contracts closed at 24,350 yuan/ton and 17,115 yuan/ton respectively. The domestic 0 - 3 month spreads were - 24,350 yuan/ton and - 17,115 yuan/ton, and the overseas 0 - 3 month spreads were - 43.57 and - 46.32 US dollars/ton respectively. The zinc inventory in seven regions increased by 0.36 tons to 12.2 tons from January 15 to January 19, and the lead inventory in five regions increased by 0.16 tons to 3.41 tons [1]. - Fundamentals: The zinc market had a supply - demand double - weak situation. The domestic consumption was in the traditional off - season, and the downstream was reluctant to buy at high prices. The supply increased significantly, and the social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions increased, but the low LME inventory provided support. The domestic lead ingot inventory increased, the consumption of electric bicycle batteries weakened, and the downstream procurement was cautious [1]. - Trading strategy: Short zinc and lead on rallies in the short - term [1]. Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The rebar main 2605 contract closed at 3,124 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [2]. - Fundamentals: The building material inventory increased by 1.4% to 300.5 tons. The steel supply - demand was neutral - weak, and the structural differentiation was significant. The building material demand was weak year - on - year, but the supply decreased significantly year - on - year. The plate demand was stable, and the direct and indirect exports remained high. The steel mill was in a continuous loss, and the production increase space was limited. The futures valuation was slightly low [2]. - Trading strategy: Hold the short position of the rebar 2605 contract, with the RB05 reference range of 3,090 - 3,150 yuan/ton [2]. Iron Ore - Market performance: The iron ore main 2605 contract closed at 785.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [3]. - Fundamentals: The iron ore arrival increased by 117 tons month - on - month and 721 tons year - on - year. The total shipment from Australia and Brazil decreased by 360 tons to 2,898 tons month - on - month and increased by 511 tons year - on - year. The iron ore supply - demand was neutral. The fourth round of price cuts was implemented, and the coking plant proposed the first round of price increases. The steel mill's profit was poor, and the subsequent blast furnace production might decrease steadily. The port and steel mill inventories were at the lowest level in the same period of history. The iron ore maintained a forward discount structure, and the valuation was neutral [3]. - Trading strategy: Be on the sidelines, with the I05 reference range of 775 - 805 yuan/ton [3]. Coking Coal - Market performance: The coking coal main 2605 contract closed at 1,121 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [3]. - Fundamentals: The molten iron production decreased by 1.5 tons to 228 tons month - on - month and increased by 3.5 tons year - on - year. The steel mill's profit deteriorated, and the subsequent blast furnace production might decrease steadily. The fourth round of price cuts for coke was implemented, and the first round of price increases was proposed. The port customs clearance was at a high level, and the inventories at various links were differentiated. The 05 contract futures had a premium over the spot, and the forward premium structure was maintained. The coking coal supply - demand was weak [3]. - Trading strategy: Hold the short position of the coking coal 2605 contract, with the JM05 reference range of 1,090 - 1,130 yuan/ton [3]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - Market performance: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose, driven by US soybean oil [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply was loose in the near - term, and there was a large supply expectation in South America in the long - term. The US soybean crushing was strong, and the export improved marginally. The global supply - demand was expected to be loose [4]. - Trading strategy: US soybeans are in the process of finding a bottom; domestic far - month contracts are suppressed by the large South American supply expectation, and near - month contracts depend on customs clearance [4]. Corn - Market performance: Corn futures prices fluctuated narrowly, and the corn spot price decreased in North China and increased in Northeast China [4]. - Fundamentals: The grain sales progress has passed half, and the grain sales pressure is not large. Farmers are reluctant to sell and support prices. The inventories of north - south ports, downstream feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises are lower than in previous years. Northeast deep - processing enterprises have a high enthusiasm for building inventories, but the policy - driven corn auction has cooled down. The spot price is expected to fluctuate strongly [4]. - Trading strategy: The supply - demand contradiction is not large, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range [4]. Oils and Fats - Market performance: The Malaysian market was strong, trading seasonally [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply was in a weak seasonal reduction; the export improved month - on - month, and the high - frequency ITS showed that the Malaysian export from January 1 - 20 increased by 11% month - on - month. Overall, it was loose in the near - term and in a weak seasonal reduction in the long - term [4]. - Trading strategy: Oils and fats are strong in the short - term, and pay attention to production and biodiesel policies in the medium - term [4]. Sugar - Market performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5,138 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.54%. The basis of the 05 contract was 162 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of processing Brazilian sugar after tax was 407 yuan/ton [4][5]. - Fundamentals: The international raw sugar dropped significantly due to the pressure from Indian production, and the pressure from India will last until February. Then, observe the impact of the sugar - alcohol price difference on the next season's Brazilian production. Currently, it is still in a fluctuating pattern. Domestically, the overall production and sales progress is slow this year, and the spot pressure in the later market is greater. SR05 is priced by imports and domestic production, and both imported and domestic sugar put pressure on it. After the macro - sentiment cools down, sugar will follow the fundamental logic [4][5]. - Trading strategy: Short sugar futures on rallies and sell call options [5]. Cotton - Market performance: Overnight, the ICE US cotton futures price was under pressure and declined, and the international crude oil price continued to rebound [5]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, as of the week of January 16, the cotton sowing progress in Mato Grosso, Brazil, increased to 29%, faster than the same period last year. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price began to fluctuate narrowly, and the upward trend was still valid. In December 2025, the cotton yarn export volume was 2.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.78% [5]. - Trading strategy: Buy on dips, with the price range of 14,500 - 14,900 yuan/ton [5]. Eggs - Market performance: Egg futures prices were weak, and egg spot prices increased in some areas [5]. - Fundamentals: The in - production inventory of laying hens decreased, but the capacity reduction slowed down. As the egg price rose, the willingness of producers to ship increased, the arrival volume in the sales area increased, the purchasing enthusiasm of the trading end decreased, the inventory increased, and the egg price may decline seasonally [5]. - Trading strategy: The spot price is expected to decline seasonally, and the futures price is expected to be weak and fluctuate [5]. Hogs - Market performance: Hog futures prices were weak, and hog spot prices declined [5]. - Fundamentals: The slaughter volume increased at the end of the month, the demand was stable in the short - term, the supply pressure increased, and after the impact of snowfall ended, the hog price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. Pay attention to the changes in the slaughter volume and slaughter rhythm recently [5]. - Trading strategy: The supply - demand weakens, and the futures price is expected to be weak and fluctuate [5]. Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - Market performance: The LLDPE main contract fluctuated slightly. The low - price spot quotation in North China was 6,520 yuan/ton, the basis of the 05 contract was 140, the basis weakened, and the market transaction was average. The US dollar price in the overseas market was stable, and the import window was closed [6]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, new devices were put into production before, some devices reduced the load and stopped production, and the domestic supply pressure slowed down. The import window was continuously closed, and the import volume is expected to decrease slightly later. Overall, the domestic supply pressure rebounded but the intensity slowed down. On the demand side, it was the off - season for downstream agricultural films, the demand decreased month - on - month, and the demand in other fields remained stable [6]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the industrial chain inventory decreased slightly, the basis was weak, the supply - demand was weak, and geopolitical factors were repeated. It is expected to fluctuate mainly, and the upward space is significantly restricted by the import window. In the medium - term, the new production capacity will decrease in the first half of the year, and the supply - demand pattern will improve. It is recommended to go long on dips [6]. PVC - Market performance: The V05 contract closed at 4,7432, a decline of 1.3% [6]. - Fundamentals: The PVC transaction was deadlocked, the demand was weak, and the upstream ex - factory price dropped by 10 - 20 again. The supply was at a high level, the production in December was 2.13 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. It is expected that the start - up rate in the fourth quarter will be 78 - 80%. The start - up rate of downstream factories decreased to about 36% and began to weaken seasonally. The real estate in November was weak, and the new construction and completion decreased by 18% year - on - year. The social inventory increased at a high level, the PVC social inventory on January 16 was 1.1441 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.70% and a year - on - year increase of 48.60%. The price of Inner Mongolia calcium carbide increased by 100 to 2,500, and the PVC price was 4,560 in East China and 4,570 in South China [6][7]. - Trading strategy: Sell 05 and buy 09 for reverse arbitrage [7]. PTA - Market performance: The PX CFR China price was 888 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 7,206 yuan/ton. The PTA spot price in East China was 5,085 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was - 70 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamentals: For PX, multiple refineries increased the load, and the Zhejiang Petrochemical CDU was under maintenance, so the PX load decreased slightly, and the overall supply remained at a high historical level. Overseas, the Korean and Vietnamese devices had plans to increase the load, and the import supply increased. The gasoline cracking profit weakened, and the blending oil demand off - season arbitrage window was closed. The PTA supply was at a high level, and Yisheng New Materials and Ineos were under maintenance in January. The overall load of polyester factories decreased, the comprehensive inventory pressure was not large, the profit of polyester products was compressed, the downstream entered the off - season, the orders weakened, and the start - up decreased rapidly. Overall, both PX and PTA had inventory accumulation [7]. - Trading strategy: The strong PX expectation supports the price. In the short - term, it may have回调 pressure due to the terminal demand. The medium - term long - allocation view remains unchanged. PTA accumulates inventory seasonally, the medium - term supply - demand pattern improves, and the processing fee has reached a high level. Take profits appropriately [7]. Methanol - Market performance: Affected by geopolitical factors before, methanol rose significantly. Recently, the geopolitical sentiment declined, and methanol showed a fluctuating adjustment trend. As of January 21, the methanol 05 contract closed at 2,209 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, as of January 16, 2026, the domestic methanol device start - up load remained above 90%, and the start - up load in the northwest region was about 97%. From the supply - side trend, the new device maintenance plans of coal - to - methanol enterprises are few, and the overall production is likely to remain at a high level. Pay attention to the resumption of production progress of natural - gas - to - methanol devices. As of the week of January 16, the domestic methanol port inventory was 1.432 million tons. The market expects that the port inventory will remain at a high level in January, which will strongly suppress the near - month contract price. At the same time, the methanol loading volume in Iran in January is expected to be at a low level and will decrease significantly month - on - month [7]. - Trading strategy: Currently, multiple Iranian devices are under maintenance. The winter gas restriction in Iran reduces methanol production, which will affect China's methanol imports. At the same time, the port inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks, and the positive news is gradually fermenting. However, the Iranian geopolitical issue is gradually cooling down. It is expected that the recent trend will be a fluctuating adjustment [7]. Glass - Market performance: The fg05 contract closed at 1,039, a decline of 2.3% [7]. - Fundamentals: The glass transaction center of gravity was stable, and the demand gradually weakened. On the supply side, there were many production cuts, the daily melting volume of glass was 15 tons, a year - on - year growth rate of - 5%. The inventory decreased from a high level. On January 15, the upstream inventory was 53.013 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 4.51% and a year - on - year increase of 20.89%. The order days of downstream deep - processing enterprises were