供应扰动+地缘风险发酵，铂钯震荡偏强

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Due to supply disruptions and escalating geopolitical risks, platinum and palladium prices are expected to show a moderately strong and volatile trend. As of January 21, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 628.5 yuan/gram, with a 2.49% increase, and the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 485.8 yuan/gram, with a 0.21% increase [2]. - Platinum: Supply disruptions and rising geopolitical risks will cause platinum prices to continue their moderately strong and volatile trend in the short term. In the future, supply in South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, still faces risks such as power supply and extreme weather. Demand in the platinum market is in a stage of structural expansion, and the "interest - rate cut + soft landing" combination will amplify the long - term price elasticity. Overall, platinum prices are expected to be moderately strong and volatile [3]. - Palladium: Although the long - term supply and demand of palladium tend to be loose, short - term spot shortages support prices. The price is expected to remain in a wide - range volatile pattern in the short term, and the price bottom has certain support with the Fed's re - entry into the interest - rate cut cycle [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Platinum - Current Situation: As of January 21, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 628.5 yuan/gram, with a 2.49% increase [2]. - Logic: South African floods may affect production and supply. Geopolitical and trade frictions are intensifying, and factors such as the nomination of the new Fed chair and US tariff expectations on platinum and palladium are key market influencers. In the short term, platinum prices may continue their moderately strong and volatile trend, and investors can consider low - buying opportunities. In the future, South African supply faces power and weather risks, while demand in the platinum market is expanding [3]. - Outlook: Moderately strong and volatile. With a healthy supply - demand fundamental and positive macro - expectations, platinum prices are expected to be moderately strong and volatile [3]. Palladium - Current Situation: As of January 21, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 485.8 yuan/gram, with a 0.21% increase [2]. - Logic: The market's previous expectation of a 50% tariff on palladium from the US did not materialize, leading to a price correction. However, the US Department of Commerce's report on Russian - imported palladium is still pending, and the spot shortage continues to support prices. In the short term, palladium prices may remain in a wide - range volatile pattern, and investors are advised to trade cautiously and consider low - buying opportunities. Palladium demand shows significant structural pressure [4]. - Outlook: Volatile. Short - term spot shortages support palladium prices, but in the medium - to - long - term, weak fundamentals and low investment attributes will suppress prices [4]. Index Information - Commodity Index: On January 21, 2026, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial products index were 2427.72 (+0.56%), 2790.52 (+0.61%), and 2316.66 (+0.35%) respectively [50]. - Plate Index: On January 21, 2026, the non - ferrous metal index was 2810.63, with a daily increase of 0.61%, a 5 - day decrease of 1.54%, a 1 - month increase of 8.36%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.64% [52].