宁证期货今日早评-20260122

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Methanol: High domestic methanol开工, declining downstream demand, slightly increasing port inventory. Expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [1]. - Silver: Delayed interest - rate cut expectations, limited short - term upward momentum, long - term bullish [2]. - Pig: Weak adjustment of pig prices, difficult to rise continuously in the short - term, recommend waiting for stability [4]. - Palm Oil: Increasing exports and declining production support prices, short - term "weak reality, strong expectation", hold short - term long positions [5]. - Soybean Meal: Short - term lack of direction, recommend waiting and watching [6]. - Iron Ore: Weakening supply - demand structure, expected price correction [6]. - Coking Coal: Improving fundamentals, spot has upward momentum, short - term expected to fluctuate [7]. - Rebar: Weak supply - demand, limited downward space, expected to stabilize [8]. - Soda Ash: Expected to maintain short - term oscillation [9]. - Crude Oil: Market is currently flat, short - term trading [10]. - PTA: Supply - demand weakening in January, follow raw material fluctuations, short - term trading [10]. - Natural Rubber: Expected to fluctuate, short - term trading [11]. - Short - term Treasury Bonds: Funds are stable, pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw [12]. - Gold: Reduced upward momentum, not recommended to be overly bullish [12]. - Copper: High - level oscillation in the short - term [13]. - Aluminum: High - level oscillation in the short - term [13]. - Plastic: Expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short - term [14]. 3. Summary by Variety Methanol - Market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2215 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton; weekly capacity utilization is 91.11%, down 0.31% week - on - week; downstream capacity utilization is 72.2%, down 1.85% week - on - week; port inventory is 145.75 tons, up 2.22 tons; production enterprise inventory is 43.83 tons, down 1.25 tons [1]. Silver - Most economists expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged this quarter and may hold off until May. Most still expect at least two rate cuts later this year [2]. Pig - On January 21, the average pork price in national agricultural product wholesale markets was 18.50 yuan/kg, up 0.2% from the previous day; egg price was 8.20 yuan/kg, up 0.9% [4]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's January 1 - 20 exports increased 8.64% compared to the same period last month; production decreased 16.06% [5]. Soybean Meal - On January 21, domestic spot prices were stable to slightly weak, with some regions down 10 yuan/ton [6]. Iron Ore - From January 12 - 18, 47 - port arrivals decreased 117.3 tons; 45 - port arrivals decreased 260.7 tons; northern six - port arrivals decreased 26.3 tons [6]. Coking Coal - The average national ton - coke profit is - 65 yuan/ton, with different profits in different regions [7]. Rebar - On January 21, domestic steel markets were slightly weak; Tangshan billet price was stable at 2930 yuan/ton; some steel mills adjusted prices [8]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1232 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; weekly output is 77.53 tons, up 2.88%; inventory is 157.5 tons, up 0.15% [9]. Crude Oil - IEA raised the 2026 oil demand growth forecast by 70,000 barrels/day to 930,000 barrels/day; supply growth is adjusted to 2.5 million barrels/day [10]. PTA - Polyester inventory is concentrated at 14 - 24 days, PTA开工 has declined, and downstream polyester is reducing production seasonally [10]. Natural Rubber - As of January 18, China's social inventory is 127.3 tons, up 1.7 tons, an increase of 1.3% [11]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term varieties show differentiation, with overnight down 5.2BP, 7 - day up 0.5BP, 14 - day up 1.5BP, and 1 - month down 0.1BP [12]. Gold - The Greenland issue has eased, reducing the upward momentum of gold [12]. Copper - In 2025, China's copper foil import value increased by 10.68% and export value increased by 29.61% year - on - year; brass rod demand slowed [13]. Aluminum - Rio Tinto's 2025 bauxite output reached 62.4 million tons, a 6% year - on - year increase [13]. Plastic - North China LLDPE price is 6626 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton; weekly output is 31.17 tons, up 3.34%; enterprise inventory is down 5.8% [14].