国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20260122

1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. However, it gives specific outlooks for different commodities: - Weakening prices with attention on downstream restocking rhythm: Iron ore [2][5] - Wide - range fluctuations due to raw material market disturbances: Rebar, Hot - rolled coil [2][9] - Wide - range fluctuations with rising cost expectations: Ferrosilicon [2][14] - Wide - range fluctuations with slight raw material price adjustments: Silicomanganese [2][14] - Weakening oscillations under both macro and micro influences: Coke, Coking coal [2][17] - Short - term weak price adjustments due to weak market sentiment: Steam coal [2][21] - Low - level oscillations: Logs [2][23] 2. Core Views The report analyzes the market trends and fundamentals of various black series commodities, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, steam coal, and logs. It provides price data, trading volume, open interest, and relevant macro and industry news for each commodity, along with trend strength indicators, all of which are used to support the specific outlooks for each commodity. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Price and Position Data: The closing price of the I2605 contract was 784.0 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan/ton (- 0.70%). The open interest decreased by 11,163 hands. Imported ore prices generally declined by 2.0 yuan/ton, while domestic ore prices remained stable. Some basis and spread values changed slightly [6]. - Macro and Industry News: On January 20, the 1 - year LPR was 3%, and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, both unchanged from the previous month [6]. - Trend Strength: 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Price and Position Data: The closing price of the RB2605 contract was 3,117 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (- 0.35%); the HC2605 contract was 3,286 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.06%). Rebar trading volume was 633,661 hands, with an open interest increase of 1,023 hands; hot - rolled coil trading volume was 335,123 hands, with an open interest decrease of 36,985 hands. Spot prices in some regions declined slightly [9]. - Macro and Industry News: BHP's first - half iron ore production hit a record high, and it accepted some iron ore price cuts in annual contract negotiations with China. Steel production, inventory, and import data for December 2025 were released, and the government will implement export license management for some steel products [9][12]. - Trend Strength: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral trend [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Price and Position Data: The closing prices of ferrosilicon 2603 and 2605 contracts were 5,556 yuan/ton and 5,542 yuan/ton respectively; silicomanganese 2603 and 2605 contracts were 5,748 yuan/ton and 5,786 yuan/ton respectively. Some spot prices and spreads changed [14]. - Macro and Industry News: On January 21, ferrosilicon and silicomanganese price ranges in different regions were reported. In 2025, the cumulative manganese ore imports increased by 12.04% year - on - year. Some steel mills' procurement prices and volumes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were announced [15][16]. - Trend Strength: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral trend [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - Price and Position Data: The closing prices of the JM2605 contract for coking coal and the J2605 contract for coke were 1,129 yuan/ton and 1,683.5 yuan/ton respectively, both with slight increases. Some spot prices and basis values changed [17]. - Macro and Industry News: On January 21, CCI metallurgical coal index data were released. As of now, the total coke inventory at two ports in Shandong increased by 700,000 tons week - on - week. Due to factors such as the slowdown in coal price increases and steel mill iron - water production cuts, the market sentiment weakened, and port coke prices declined [17]. - Trend Strength: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [20]. Steam Coal - Price and Position Data: The prices at production areas, ports, overseas, and the January long - term agreement prices showed different degrees of change, with some prices declining [21]. - Macro and Industry News: In December 2025, China's raw coal production increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. Coal imports in December 2025 far exceeded expectations. In 2026, Indonesia's expected coal production quota is expected to be tightened [22]. Logs - Price and Position Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts showed different trends. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable [24]. - Macro and Industry News: China's December RatingDog composite PMI was 51.3, slightly higher than that in November, indicating further growth in the total production and operation volume of Chinese enterprises at the end of 2025 [26]. - Trend Strength: 0, indicating a neutral trend [26].