国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20260122

Report Overview - Report Date: January 22, 2026 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Report Focus: Nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core Views - Nickel: Indonesian statements repeatedly disrupt market sentiment, leading to wide - range fluctuations in nickel prices [2][4] - Stainless Steel: The futures market is anchored by the contradictions in the ore end, and the rising price of ferronickel supports the price center [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: Supported by auction prices and expected supply reduction, the bullish and volatile trend continues [2][9] - Industrial Silicon: Upstream production cuts lead to a range - bound oscillation state [2][12] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to subsequent spot transaction prices [2][13] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 143,060 yuan, with a change of 1,700 yuan compared to T - 1. The stainless steel main contract closed at 14,720 yuan, up 375 yuan from T - 1. Other data such as trading volume, import prices, and price spreads also showed different degrees of change [4] - Macro and Industry News: Indonesia suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform; China implemented export license management for some steel products; Indonesia plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore and adjust the nickel ore production target [4][5][7] - Trend Intensity: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8] Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 166,740 yuan, up 6,240 yuan from T - 1. Trading volume, open interest, and other indicators also changed. Spot prices of lithium carbonate and related products in the industrial chain showed an upward trend [9] - Macro and Industry News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased; an auction of lithium spodumene concentrate was completed; new energy vehicle retail and wholesale data declined year - on - year and month - on - month [10][11] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a relatively bullish outlook [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Si2605 contract for industrial silicon was 8,780 yuan, up 35 yuan from T - 1. The PS2605 contract for polysilicon closed at 49,700 yuan, down 1,000 yuan from T - 1. Data on trading volume, open interest, price spreads, and inventory also showed various changes [13] - Macro and Industry News: The battery market is under cost pressure due to rising silver prices, and overseas battery prices have changed due to export tax policies [13][15] - Trend Intensity: Industrial silicon has a trend intensity of 0 (neutral), and polysilicon has a trend intensity of - 1 (relatively bearish) [15]