美国寒潮天然?连续第?天上涨，装置故障苯?烯利润?幅扩张

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil price continues to oscillate. Kazakhstan is about to lift export restrictions, and the IEA expects an oversupply in the global oil market in 2026. Attention should be paid to the impact of the cold wave in the US on the oil and gas market [1]. - The relatively strong variety in the chemical chain is aromatics. Styrene has risen significantly, but there is a possibility of profit compression between April and May [1]. - Overall, the energy and chemical industry is expected to be volatile, with geopolitical risks remaining a factor for the crude oil market [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic of Each Variety 3.1.1 Crude Oil - Market News: India's Reliance Industries will receive Russian oil in February and March; US crude and gasoline inventories increased last week [6]. - Main Logic: The supply - surplus pattern persists. The cold wave in the US drives up natural gas prices and supports diesel crack spreads. Geopolitical factors are the main short - term concern, and the oil price may fluctuate depending on the development of the Iranian situation [6]. - Outlook: Oscillation. Supply pressure continues, but geopolitical premiums may vary [6]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - Market News: On January 21, 2026, the asphalt futures and spot prices are provided [7]. - Main Logic: OPEC+ suspends production increase in Q1, and the partial lifting of sanctions on Venezuela will lead to sufficient long - term asphalt supply. Current high - valuation is expected to decline due to factors such as increased supply and weak demand [7]. - Outlook: Oscillation with a weakening trend. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to fall [7]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Market News: On January 21, 2026, the high - sulfur fuel oil futures price is given [7]. - Main Logic: The expected increase in heavy - oil supply from Venezuela puts long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. Geopolitical premiums have returned, but long - term factors such as high - floating storage in the Asia - Pacific and the replacement of fuel oil by other energy sources are negative [7]. - Outlook: Oscillation. The growth of Venezuelan oil production exerts long - term pressure, and short - term focus is on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [7]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Market News: On January 21, 2026, the low - sulfur fuel oil futures price is provided [9]. - Main Logic: The price of low - sulfur fuel oil follows the oscillation of crude oil. The increase in US natural gas prices may support low - sulfur fuel oil. However, it faces challenges such as the decline in shipping demand and the substitution of green energy [9]. - Outlook: Oscillation. It is affected by green fuel substitution but has a relatively low valuation and follows the movement of crude oil [9]. 3.1.5 PX - Market News: On January 21, 2026, PX prices and related data are presented [10]. - Main Logic: International oil prices oscillate, and PX has a short - term profit support. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the floating price is weak. The anti - arbitrage structure between PX03 and PX05 is clear [11]. - Outlook: Short - term oscillation. PXN is expected to be in the range of [300, 350] US dollars per ton [11]. 3.1.6 PTA - Market News: On January 21, 2026, PTA prices, processing fees, and downstream sales data are given [11]. - Main Logic: The upstream PX supply is abundant, and PTA spot profits continue to expand. The market lacks new drivers, and the price is expected to be in a range - bound oscillation [12]. - Outlook: Short - term range - bound oscillation. The TA05 - 09 maintains a positive - arbitrage logic, and the processing fee is expected to expand slightly [12]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - Market News: On January 21, 2026, pure benzene prices and related data are provided [13]. - Main Logic: The East China pure benzene port has started to destock. Downstream profit - locking, the possible cancellation of US tariffs on South Korean pure benzene, and the low valuation of pure benzene contribute to its price increase [16]. - Outlook: Oscillation. High inventory may limit the increase, but there will be a quarterly improvement [16]. 3.1.8 Styrene - Market News: On January 21, 2026, styrene prices, costs, and profits are presented [17]. - Main Logic: Export disruptions, geopolitical factors, and a positive commodity atmosphere drive up the styrene price. The supply - demand pattern is favorable in January, and it is expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short term [17]. - Outlook: Oscillation with a strengthening trend. If there is no significant increase in supply or major negative news from crude oil, it will maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [17]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - Market News: On January 21, 2026, ethylene glycol prices and trading information are given [18]. - Main Logic: The arrival of overseas shipments is concentrated, and the seasonal inventory accumulation pressure is significant. The weak pattern is difficult to reverse [19]. - Outlook: Short - term range - bound operation. The long - term inventory accumulation pressure limits the rebound height, and the operation range is [3700 - 3900] yuan per ton [19]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - Market News: On January 21, 2026, short - fiber prices, sales, and inventory data are provided [20]. - Main Logic: The cost supports the price, but downstream orders are weakening, and the short - fiber is about to enter the seasonal inventory accumulation period [21]. - Outlook: The price follows the upstream movement, and the processing fee is under pressure [21]. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chip - Market News: On January 21, 2026, polyester bottle chip prices, processing fees, and export information are given [22]. - Main Logic: The price of polyester bottle chips follows the increase of upstream raw materials, and the supply reduction leads to profit expansion. It is expected to be in a range - bound oscillation in the short term [22]. - Outlook: The absolute value follows the raw material fluctuation, and the support for the processing fee is enhanced [22]. 3.1.12 Methanol - Market News: On January 21, 2026, methanol prices, inventory, and device information are provided [24]. - Main Logic: The inland market has a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, and the port inventory is increasing. The short - term negative factors are stronger than the positive ones, but the basis is slightly strong, and the price oscillates [24]. - Outlook: Short - term range - bound oscillation [24]. 3.1.13 Urea - Market News: On January 21, 2026, urea prices, production, and inventory data are given [25]. - Main Logic: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is relatively rigid. The inventory is decreasing, but the actual transaction volume is difficult to expand, and the market is in a stalemate [25]. - Outlook: Oscillation. The market lacks clear guidance, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [25]. 3.1.14 LLDPE - Market News: On January 21, 2026, LLDPE prices, basis, and overseas price information are provided [28]. - Main Logic: The oil price oscillates, and the supply - surplus pattern persists. The fundamental pressure is released, and the demand is in the off - season. Considering the macro - consumption policy expectations, the price is expected to oscillate [28]. - Outlook: Short - term oscillation [28]. 3.1.15 PP - Market News: On January 21, 2026, PP prices, basis, and overseas price information are provided [29]. - Main Logic: Similar to LLDPE, the oil price oscillates, and the profit has been repaired. The downstream is in the off - season, but the short - term support from maintenance and macro - expectations exists, and the price is expected to oscillate [29]. - Outlook: Short - term oscillation [29]. 3.1.16 PL - Market News: On January 21, 2026, PL prices and basis are provided [30]. - Main Logic: The PDH maintenance expectation provides support. The propylene supply is tight, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate [30]. - Outlook: Short - term oscillation [30]. 3.1.17 PVC - Market News: On January 21, 2026, PVC prices, costs, and related data are provided [32]. - Main Logic: The export tax - rebate cancellation may lead to short - term "rush - to - export" behavior, but the long - term supply - demand situation is under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate [32]. - Outlook: Oscillation [32]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - Market News: On January 21, 2026, caustic soda prices, costs, and related data are provided [33]. - Main Logic: The inventory is accumulating, and the demand is weak. The cost is stable, and the profit may be squeezed. The price is expected to be weak [33]. - Outlook: Weakening [33]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Cross - Period Spreads: Data on cross - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. are provided, showing the latest values and changes [34]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties including asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are presented, along with their changes [35]. - Cross - Variety Spreads: Data on cross - variety spreads such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. are given, showing the latest values and changes [36]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring Although there are headings for each variety, no specific content is provided for analysis. 3.3 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and plate index of commodities are presented, including their values and percentage changes [278][279].