格林期货早盘提示：白糖-20260122

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the sugar industry, the external market of raw sugar may maintain a range - bound shock, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar shows a weak trend. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy, and long - term short positions of SR605 should continue to be held, focusing on the 5100 - 5230 activity range [1] - For the rubber industry, natural rubber has no obvious unilateral driving force in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether the BR trend can boost it. Synthetic rubber is expected to have a short - term strong consolidation, and it is recommended to focus on the support near the lower moving average in the short term and adopt a low - buying strategy in the medium and long term [5] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Sugar Market Review - On the previous day, the closing price of SR605 contract was 5144 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.75%, and the night - session closed at 5138 yuan/ton; the closing price of SR609 contract was 5161 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.75%, and the night - session closed at 5158 yuan/ton [1] Key Information - The spot transaction price of Guangxi white sugar was 5238 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton; the quotation range of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5270 - 5360 yuan/ton, with an overall reduction of 10 - 20 yuan/ton; the quotation of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5120 - 5160 yuan/ton, down 20 - 30 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 5700 - 5820 yuan/ton, with individual reductions of 20 - 30 yuan/ton [1] - In December 2025, the average yield of sugarcane in the central and southern regions of Brazil was 73.4 tons/hectare, a year - on - year increase of 26.6%. The cumulative yield per unit area in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season (from April to December) was 74.7 tons/hectare, a decrease of 4.6% compared with the same period of the previous season [1] - The cabinet of Punjab in India approved a direct subsidy of 685 rupees/ton (equivalent to 52.38 yuan/ton) for sugarcane farmers in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season [1] - As of January 17, 2026, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in Thailand was 29.2643 million tons, a decrease of 5.6156 million tons or 16.09% compared with the same period last year; the sugar content of sugarcane was 11.95%, an increase of 0.08% compared with the same period last year; the sugar production rate was 9.790%, a decrease of 0.024% compared with the same period last year; the sugar production was 2.8651 million tons, a decrease of 0.5581 million tons or 16.3% compared with the same period last year [1] - The number of white sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 14,421, a day - on - day decrease of 18 [1] Market Logic - In the external market, raw sugar rebounded slightly. Affected by the expected supply pressure of Thailand and India, the external sugar price has repeatedly failed to stabilize above 15 cents/pound recently, and the short - term may maintain a range - bound shock [1] - In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar continued to be weak, and the decline slowed down in the night session. The domestic white sugar market is currently calm, and there is no unexpected news. Technically, the recent trend of Zhengzhou sugar is weak [1] Trading Strategy - Long - term short positions of SR605 should continue to be held, focusing on the 5100 - 5230 activity range [1] Rubber Market Review - As of January 21, the closing price of the RU2605 contract was 15,745 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.80%; the closing price of the NR2603 contract was 12,615 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.52%; the closing price of the BR2603 contract was 11,915 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.85% [5] Key Information - The price of raw material glue in Thailand was 57.2 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup rubber was 52.1 Thai baht/kg; the price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13,200 yuan/ton [5] - As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons or 2.94%. The bonded area inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%; the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26% [5] - The price of full - latex was 15,500 yuan/ton; the price of 20 - grade Thai standard was 1,890 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 13,233 yuan/ton; the price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber was 14,800 yuan/ton [5] - The price difference between the RU and NR main contracts was 3,130 yuan/ton, a month - on - month expansion of 60 yuan/ton; the price difference between the mixed standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 945 yuan/ton, a month - on - month expansion of 75 yuan/ton [5] - The delivery price of butadiene in the central Shandong region was around 9,650 - 9,750 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was around 9,300 - 9,400 yuan/ton [5] - The market prices of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber increased. The price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market increased by 100 to 11,650 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 in the Shandong market increased by 100 yuan/ton to 12,000 yuan/ton [5] Market Logic - Natural rubber: It rebounded slightly, and the market sentiment improved slightly. The raw material prices overseas stopped falling and rebounded, but considering the seasonal inventory accumulation trend and the lackluster demand, there is no obvious unilateral driving force. Attention should be paid to whether the BR trend can boost it [5] - Synthetic rubber: The domestic available spot supply of butadiene is limited, and there are continuous export transaction news. It still has strong cost support for cis - butadiene rubber. The short - term supply pressure of cis - butadiene rubber is difficult to ease, and the short - term bearish sentiment of traders has subsided. The short - term disk may be in a strong consolidation [5] Trading Strategy - The rubber series should pay attention to the support near the lower moving average in the short term, and the medium - and long - term strategy should be based on low - buying [5]