工业硅：上游减产，区间震荡态势，多晶硅：关注后续现货成交价

Group 1: Report Title and General Outlook - The report focuses on industrial silicon and polysilicon, with the outlook of industrial silicon being in a state of upstream production cuts and range - bound oscillation [1] Group 2: Fundamental Data Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2605 closing price is 8,780 yuan/ton, with changes of 35 yuan from T - 1, 25 yuan from T - 5, and 135 yuan from T - 22; its trading volume is 280,575 lots, down 57,731 lots from T - 1, up 34,639 lots from T - 5, and down 67,902 lots from T - 22; its open interest is 223,687 lots, down 865 from T - 1, down 11,402 from T - 5, and up 15,907 from T - 22 [2] - PS2605 closing price is 49,700 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan from T - 1 and up 755 yuan from T - 5; its trading volume is 15,484 lots, up 5,369 lots from T - 1 and down 5,458 lots from T - 5; its open interest is 43,920 lots, up 288 from T - 1 and down 4,519 from T - 5 [2] Basis - Industrial silicon spot premium/discount (against East China Si5530) is +470 yuan/ton, with changes of -35 yuan from T - 1, -25 yuan from T - 5, and -85 yuan from T - 22; against East China Si4210 is +70 yuan/ton, -35 yuan from T - 1, -25 yuan from T - 5, and 1,135 yuan from T - 22; against Xinjiang 99 silicon is -80 yuan/ton, -35 yuan from T - 1, -25 yuan from T - 5, and -140 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Polysilicon spot premium/discount (against N - type re - investment) is +5050 yuan/ton, 0 from T - 1, -1,255 yuan from T - 5, and 11,895 yuan from T - 22 [2] Price - Xinjiang 99 silicon price is 8700 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 and T - 5, and down 50 yuan from T - 22; Yunnan Si4210 price is 10000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [2] - Polysilicon - N - type re - investment material price is 54500 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan from T - 1, down 250 yuan from T - 5, and up 2100 yuan from T - 22 [2] Profit - Silicon plant profit (Xinjiang new standard 553) is - 2351.5 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan from T - 1, down 325 yuan from T - 5, and down 70 yuan from T - 22; (Yunnan new standard 553) is - 5574 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan from T - 1, down 295 yuan from T - 5, and down 205 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Polysilicon enterprise profit is 10.1 yuan/kg, down 0.4 yuan from T - 1, up 0.1 yuan from T - 5, and up 2.4 yuan from T - 22 [2] Inventory - Industrial silicon - social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.5 million tons, up 0.3 million tons from T - 5 and 0.2 million tons from T - 22; enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) is 20.8 million tons, up 0.42 million tons from T - 5 and 2.1 million tons from T - 22; industry inventory (social + enterprise) is 76.3 million tons, up 0.72 million tons from T - 5 and 2.25 million tons from T - 22; futures warehouse receipt inventory is 6.0 million tons, up 0.2 million tons from T - 1, 0.4 million tons from T - 5, and 1.6 million tons from T - 22 [2] - Polysilicon - manufacturer inventory is 32.1 million tons, up 1.9 million tons from T - 5 and 2.8 million tons from T - 22 [2] Raw Material Cost - Silicon ore price in Xinjiang is 320 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22; in Yunnan is 240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from T - 5 and 20 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Washed coking coal price in Xinjiang is 1475 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22; in Ningxia is 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22 [2] - Petroleum coke price: Maoming coke is 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22; Yangtze coke is 2340 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22 [2] - Electrode price: graphite electrode is 12450 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22; carbon electrode is 7200 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22 [2] Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) Price and Profit - Polysilicon - N - type re - investment material price is 54500 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan from T - 1, down 250 yuan from T - 5, and up 2100 yuan from T - 22; trichlorosilane is 3425 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22; silicon powder (99 silicon) is 9800 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [2] - Silicon wafer (N - type - 210mm) price is 1.68 yuan/piece, down 0.01 yuan from T - 1 and T - 5, and up 0.20 yuan from T - 22; battery cell (TOPCon - 210mm) is 0.41 yuan/watt, unchanged from T - 1, up 0.02 yuan from T - 5, and down 0.71 yuan from T - 22; component (N - type - 210mm, centralized) is 0.711 yuan/watt, unchanged from T - 1, up 0.003 yuan from T - 5, and up 0.024 yuan from T - 22; photovoltaic glass (3.2mm) is 17.5 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from T - 1 and T - 5, and down 1.5 yuan from T - 22; photovoltaic - grade EVA price is 9000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, up 299 yuan from T - 5, and down 65 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Polysilicon enterprise profit is 10.1 yuan/kg, down 0.4 yuan from T - 1, up 0.1 yuan from T - 5, and up 2.4 yuan from T - 22 [2] Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy Price and Profit - Organic silicon DMC price is 13900 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, up 50 yuan from T - 5, and up 300 yuan from T - 22; DMC enterprise profit is 1954 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, up 124 yuan from T - 5, and up 264 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 23850 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, down 350 yuan from T - 5, and up 2200 yuan from T - 22; recycled aluminum enterprise profit is 140 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from T - 1, up 610 yuan from T - 5, and up 220 yuan from T - 22 [2] Group 3: Macro and Industry News - The battery end is still under cost pressure due to the rising silver price. The mainstream market quotation is 0.4 - 0.43 yuan/W, and some leading enterprises intend to raise the quotation to 0.45 yuan/W. The current mainstream domestic market transactions are concentrated at 0.4 - 0.41 yuan/W, and the latest overseas battery 183N transaction has reached 0.43 yuan/W due to the export tax policy [2][4] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook; the trend intensity of polysilicon is -1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [4]