尿素：震荡整理，下方有支撑

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The urea price is expected to be volatile in the short term and bullish in the medium term, with obvious support at the bottom for both futures and spot prices due to the strong expectation of post - Spring Festival agricultural demand [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,775 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,768 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; the trading volume was 175,891 lots, an increase from the previous day; the open interest of the 05 contract was 233,074 lots, down 2,813 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 13,355 tons, unchanged; the trading volume was 621.93 million yuan, an increase of 211.744 million yuan. The basis in Shandong area was - 25 yuan, down 3 yuan; the basis of Fengxi - disk was - 145 yuan, down 3 yuan; the basis of Dongguang - disk was - 45 yuan, down 3 yuan; the spread between UR05 - UR09 was 26, unchanged [1] - Spot Market: The factory prices of Henan Xinlianxin, Yankuang Xinjiang, Shanxi Fengxi, Hebei Dongguang, and Jiangsu Linggu remained unchanged, while Shandong Ruixing's price dropped by 20 yuan to 1,725 yuan/ton. The trading prices in Shandong area remained unchanged at 1,750 yuan/ton, and in Shanxi area dropped by 10 yuan to 1,630 yuan/ton [1] - Supply - side Indicators: The operating rate was 85.19%, up 0.47 percentage points; the daily output was 200,580 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons [1] Industry News - On January 21, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 946,000 tons, a decrease of 40,100 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.07%. The inventory reduction was mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia. Some enterprises in the main production and sales areas had a slight inventory build - up, but the overall inventory decreased due to the demand in the Northeast region [2] - The overall spot trading of urea has been weak in recent days, and the spot price is expected to remain stable [2][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]