LLDPE：12月进口超预期，上游报价松动

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - LLDPE imports in December exceeded expectations, and upstream quotes showed signs of weakness. The futures market was volatile, with upstream inventory transferred earlier, but recent mid - stream shipments led to looser enterprise quotes. The downstream was resistant to high prices due to compressed profit margins [1]. - The raw material end, crude oil prices strengthened, while the ethylene monomer segment weakened, and the profit of PE ethylene and ethane processes was repaired. The PE market continued to rebound, with trading concentrated in the mid - stream, and the downstream was not chasing the rising prices to replenish stocks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of L2605 was 6666, with a daily increase of 0.39%. The trading volume was 410,677, and the open interest increased by 9,150 [1]. - Basis and Spread Data: The basis of the 05 contract was - 146 (previous day: - 110), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 28 (previous day: - 24) [1]. - Spot Price Data: In the north, the spot price was 6,520 yuan/ton (previous day: 6,530 yuan/ton); in the east, it was 6,650 yuan/ton (previous day: 6,700 yuan/ton); in the south, it remained at 6,700 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Spot News - The futures market was volatile. Upstream inventory was transferred earlier, but recent mid - stream shipments led to looser enterprise quotes. The production of standard products continued to rise, and after the market correction, trading volume weakened significantly, and the basis strengthening was not as strong as before. The downstream was resistant to high prices due to compressed profit margins [1]. - The overseas market quotes increased, and LL supplies were scarce. The long - term import profit was available, and importer transactions increased. Downstream factories were mostly cautious and waiting [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The raw material end, crude oil prices strengthened, and the Middle East geopolitical risks had not been released. The ethylene monomer segment weakened, and the profit of PE ethylene and ethane processes was repaired [2]. - The PE market continued to rebound, with trading concentrated in the mid - stream, and the downstream was not chasing the rising prices to replenish stocks. The downstream demand for agricultural films was weakening, and the packaging film industry maintained rigid demand. After the recent price decline, the willingness of the mid - and downstream to hold goods weakened. The upstream offered discounts to sell at the end of the year, and the factory inventory decreased slightly, with a weak basis [2]. - On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang was gradually in trial production. The planned maintenance in January decreased compared with the previous month, and some FD switched back to standard products. In the medium term, attention should still be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The LLDPE trend intensity was - 1 [3]