西南期货早间评论-20260122

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. The Treasury bond futures are under pressure, and caution is advised. The stock index is expected to have its fluctuation center gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held. The precious metals market is expected to have significant fluctuations, and long positions can be liquidated and wait and see. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils may continue to be weakly volatile. The iron ore market's supply - demand pattern has weakened, and it may continue to correct in the short term. The coking coal and coke futures may continue to be weak in the short term. The ferroalloy has an overall over - supply pressure, and long positions in the low - level range can be considered after the price decline. The crude oil is expected to continue to rebound after the correction. The fuel oil, polyolefin, and synthetic rubber may have long - position opportunities. The natural rubber is expected to have a wide - range shock. The PVC may be strongly volatile. The urea is expected to be in a strong - oscillating state. The PX may be in an oscillating adjustment. The PTA may be in an oscillating operation. The ethylene glycol may face pressure in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see. The short - fiber may follow the raw material price to oscillate. The bottle - chip may follow the cost side to oscillate. The soda ash is suitable for range operation in the short term. The glass is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival. The caustic soda price is expected to continue to be weak in the short term. The pulp market is under pressure due to inventory and weak demand. The lithium carbonate price may have greater short - term fluctuations. The copper price is at a high level and may be adjusted. The aluminum price may be adjusted at a high level. The zinc price may face pressure and correct. The lead price may maintain a range - bound oscillation. The tin price may be strongly volatile. The nickel is in an over - supply pattern. The soybean meal may have long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range, and the soybean oil may consider liquidating long positions when the price rises. The palm oil may consider long - position opportunities after the correction. The rapeseed meal and oil may consider reducing and holding the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal and between soybean oil and rapeseed oil. The cotton price is expected to be strongly volatile in the medium - to - long term. The sugar price is expected to be bearish in the medium - to - long term. The apple price is expected to be strongly volatile in the medium - to - long term. The live pig market may face supply pressure in the first quarter, and it is advisable to wait and see. The egg market can consider a positive spread strategy. The corn and starch may follow the corn market, and the supply pressure of corn needs to be further released. The log price is expected to be stable, and the futures may oscillate at the bottom [5][6][7][10][12][14][15][19][21][24][26][29][30][35][37][39][40][42][43][45][46][48][49][51][52][54][56][58][60][63][64][66][68][71][73][74][77][78][81][84][85][87][89]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 363.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 122.7 billion yuan. The People's Bank of China held a payment and settlement work meeting. The Treasury bond futures are under pressure due to factors such as the relatively low yield, the stable economic recovery, and the rising risk appetite [5][6]. Housing and Real Estate - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development stated that the real estate market is city - based, and cities should use regulatory autonomy. The government will continue to implement policies according to cities, support reasonable financing of real estate enterprises and housing demand, and promote the stable operation of the real estate market [6]. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The central bank in Guangdong adjusted the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans. The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the asset valuation is low, and the market sentiment has warmed up. It is expected that the fluctuation center of the stock index will gradually move up [7]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, the speculative sentiment has heated up significantly, and it is advisable to liquidate long positions and wait and see [9][10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. In the medium term, the prices are dominated by industry supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is decreasing year - on - year, and the market is entering the off - season. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the inventory is slightly higher than last year. The prices may continue to be weakly volatile, and the hot - rolled coils may have a similar trend [12]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures continued to correct. The demand for iron ore has decreased, the supply is under pressure, and the port inventory is at a high level in the past five years. The supply - demand pattern has weakened, and it may continue to correct in the short term [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to fall. The production of coking coal is stable, and the demand from downstream coke enterprises has improved. The price increase of coke has been resisted by steel mills. The futures may continue to be weak in the short term [15]. Ferroalloy - On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures had different performances. The supply of manganese ore has changed, the cost of ferroalloy has a narrow - range fluctuation, and the production and demand are both weak. The overall over - supply pressure continues, and long positions in the low - level range can be considered after the price decline [17][18][19]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated higher. Speculators have turned to hold net long positions in US crude oil futures, the number of oil and gas rigs has declined, and the US has adjusted its policy on Venezuelan energy. The crude oil is expected to continue to rebound after the correction [20][21]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward. The export volume of fuel oil from Singapore has increased, but the high inventory restricts the increase. The price difference in the spot market has improved, and long - position opportunities can be considered [23][24]. Polyolefin - On the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou had mixed quotes, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao declined. The northern cold weather and the southern labor shortage have affected the production, but the demand from high - end manufacturing for modified PP is stable. The profit of some enterprises has recovered, and long - position opportunities can be considered [25][26]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The market rise was supported by the increase in butadiene price and high device operation rate, but the downstream demand was weak. It is expected to be strongly volatile, and long - position opportunities can be considered [27][28][29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The domestic rubber - tapping season is coming to an end, the demand for raw materials has increased, the demand from the tire industry has improved, but the inventory has continued to accumulate. It is expected to have a wide - range shock [30][31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures declined. It is in the traditional off - season, but the policy expectation may make the market strongly volatile. The production capacity utilization rate has decreased, the demand from downstream enterprises has declined slightly, the cost has changed, and the inventory has increased. It may be strongly volatile [32][33][35]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The export demand and cost support make the price strongly oscillating. The daily production is high, the demand from the compound fertilizer industry is stable, and the inventory is lower than expected [36][37]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit are stable, the operating rate has increased, and the cost side has support. It may be in an oscillating adjustment [38][39]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply has decreased slightly, the demand from the polyester industry has decreased, and the processing fee is at an average level. It may be in an oscillating operation [40]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The supply may increase, the port inventory is under pressure, and the expected arrival at the port has increased significantly. It may face pressure in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [41][42]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply is at a relatively high level, the sales have improved, and the terminal factory is digesting raw material inventory. It may follow the raw material price to oscillate [43]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. The load has decreased slightly, there will be concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival, the export growth rate has increased, and it may follow the cost side to oscillate [44][45]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures declined. The supply is abundant, the inventory has continued to accumulate, and the downstream demand is average. It is suitable for range operation in the short term [46]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures declined. The supply is abundant, the inventory has decreased slightly, but the trader's inventory has increased. The market sentiment is stable, and it is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [47][48]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures declined. The supply is sufficient, the inventory has continued to accumulate, and the demand is stable. The price is expected to continue to be weak in the short term [49]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures declined slightly. The import pulp market sentiment is weak, the price trend is divided, the inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate, and the demand from paper mills is weak [50][51]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The market trading sentiment has cooled down. The supply is abundant, the demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved, and the inventory has decreased. The price may have greater short - term fluctuations [52]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures were flat. The macro - environment is complex, the supply is tight, but the high price has suppressed the demand, and the inventory has increased. The price is at a high level and may be adjusted [53][54][55]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, Shanghai aluminum and alumina futures rose. The bauxite supply is abundant, the alumina market is oversupplied, the electrolytic aluminum production increase is limited, and the demand is affected by the off - season and high price. The price may be adjusted at a high level [56][57]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, Shanghai zinc futures rose. The raw material supply is tight, the processing fee is under pressure, the consumption is seasonally weak, and the price may face pressure and correct [58][59]. Lead - On the previous trading day, Shanghai lead futures rose. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, the production of primary lead is restricted, the demand is differentiated, and the inventory is low. The price may maintain a range - bound oscillation [60][61]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin futures rose. The supply is tight due to geopolitical conflicts and slow production resumption, the demand has some resilience, and the inventory has decreased. The price may be strongly volatile [62][63]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel futures rose. The macro - environment is complex, the Indonesian nickel policy has changed, the supply cost may increase, but the downstream demand is weak, and it is in an over - supply pattern [64]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures declined slightly, and soybean oil futures rose. The South American soybean harvest is slow, the dollar has weakened, the domestic soybean import has slowed down, the oil - mill crushing is in a loss, and the demand for soybean meal and oil has different performances. The soybean meal may have long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range, and the soybean oil may consider liquidating long positions when the price rises [65][66]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil price has risen to a seven - week high. The export has increased, the production has decreased, the domestic import has decreased, and the inventory is at a medium level in the past seven years. Long - position opportunities can be considered after the correction [67][68]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures rose. China will reduce the comprehensive tariff on Canadian rapeseed. The domestic rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal imports have changed, and the inventory has increased. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal and between soybean oil and rapeseed oil can be considered to be reduced and held [69][70][71]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures declined. The USDA supply - demand report is favorable, the domestic cotton production is high but the inventory accumulation is lower than expected, and the future planting area may be reduced. The demand is resilient. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the medium - to - long term, and long positions can be considered after the correction [72][73][74]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar futures declined. The Indian sugar production is expected to increase, the domestic sugar supply is sufficient, and there is pressure from domestic and imported sugar. The price may be bearish in the medium - to - long term [76][77][78]. Apple - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures rebounded. The inventory is at a low level in recent years, the new - season apple production and quality have declined. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the medium - to - long term, and long positions can be considered after the correction [80][81][82]. Live Pig - On the previous trading day, live - pig futures declined. The northern and southern pig prices have declined, the supply is abundant, and the consumption change during the Spring Festival needs to be followed. The first - quarter supply may face pressure, and it is advisable to wait and see [83][84]. Egg - On the previous trading day, egg futures rose. The egg production cost has increased, the inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and the supply may be high in January. A positive spread strategy can be considered [85]. Corn and Starch - On the previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures rose. The northern port inventory is low, the supply pressure needs to be released, the demand for corn starch has improved slightly, and it may follow the corn market [86][87]. Log - On the previous trading day, log futures rose. The supply is abundant, the inventory has different changes, the demand from downstream processing plants has increased. The price is expected to be stable, and the futures may oscillate at the bottom [88][89].