A股市场或仍处于震荡整固中，年报预增主线确定性较强

Market Overview - The A-share market is currently experiencing a phase of oscillation and consolidation, with a strong certainty in the main line of annual report pre-increases [1][2] - Recent escalations in US-EU trade frictions have led to a general decline in global risk appetite, prompting funds to flow into safe-haven assets like gold [1][2] - Despite the market's oscillation, A-shares have shown resilience, with major indices recovering from initial lows to close in positive territory [1][4] Short-term Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue its oscillation and consolidation in the short term due to shrinking trading volume, with total trading volume around 2.6 trillion yuan [2][10] - The upcoming peak of annual report forecasts in January is creating a battleground between performance expectations and fundamental validations, particularly for certain technology sectors where earnings visibility is in question [2][10] - However, the medium-term positive trend remains intact, supported by a global interest rate cut cycle and a favorable macro liquidity environment [2][10] Sector Analysis Precious Metals - The precious metals sector has shown strong performance, driven by factors such as the onset of a US Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, increased geopolitical tensions, and robust demand from global central banks [6][9] - The report suggests caution against chasing prices after significant increases, recommending short-term trading strategies with stop-loss measures [6] New Energy Metals - The new energy sector, particularly lithium batteries and related technologies, remains active, supported by ongoing global efforts to achieve carbon neutrality [7][9] - The report highlights the importance of upcoming policy reforms in the photovoltaic sector and the potential for continued investment in new energy technologies [7] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector has been identified as a key area for investment, with a notable increase in stock prices and a projected long-term positive outlook due to digital transformation and geopolitical factors [8][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong earnings and growth expectations while avoiding speculative stocks lacking fundamental support [9]