螺纹钢：原料市场扰动，宽幅震荡，热轧卷板：原料市场扰动，宽幅震荡

Report Summary 1. Industry News - BHP Billiton reported record-high iron ore production in the first half of the year and accepted a partial price cut in annual contract negotiations with China [1] - On January 19, an explosion occurred at a 650m³ saturated water and steam spherical tank in the steelmaking department of Baotou Steel Plate Factory, affecting the production of the plate mill and surrounding production lines [1] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products [4] 2. Futures Market Data 2.1 Price and Trading Volume - RB2605 closed at 3,117 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.35%), with a trading volume of 633,661 lots and an open interest of 1,742,258 lots, an increase of 1,023 lots [2] - HC2605 closed at 3,286 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.06%), with a trading volume of 335,123 lots and an open interest of 1,449,160 lots, a decrease of 36,985 lots [2] 2.2 Spot Price - The spot price of rebar in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Beijing decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while the price in Guangzhou remained unchanged [2] - The spot price of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou remained unchanged, while the price in Tianjin decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2] - The price of Tangshan steel billets remained unchanged at 2,930 yuan/ton [2] 2.3 Basis and Spread - The basis of RB2605 decreased by 16 yuan/ton to 153 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2605 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to -16 yuan/ton [2] - The spread between RB2605 and RB2610 increased by 3 yuan/ton to -45 yuan/ton, and the spread between HC2605 and HC2610 remained unchanged at -19 yuan/ton [2] - The spread between HC2605 and RB2605 increased by 4 yuan/ton to 169 yuan/ton, and the spread between HC2610 and RB2610 increased by 7 yuan/ton to 143 yuan/ton [2] 3. Weekly Data 3.1 Production - On January 15, rebar production decreased by 0.74 tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 2.85 tons, and the total production of five major steel products increased by 0.62 tons [4] 3.2 Inventory - Rebar inventory decreased by 0.04 tons, hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 5.8 tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 6.91 tons [4] 3.3 Apparent Demand - Rebar apparent demand increased by 14.44 tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand increased by 5.55 tons, and the total apparent demand increased by 27.5 tons [4] 4. Import and Export Data 4.1 December 2025 - China imported 51.7 million tons of steel in December 2025, a month-on-month increase of 2.1 million tons (4.2%), with an average price of 1,810.3 US dollars/ton, a month-on-month increase of 179.0 US dollars/ton (11.0%) [4] - From January to December, China imported 605.9 million tons of steel, a year-on-year decrease of 75.6 million tons (11.1%) [4] 4.2 October 2025 - China imported 50.3 million tons of steel in October 2025, a month-on-month decrease of 4.5 million tons (8.2%), with an average price of 1,593.0 US dollars/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 31.1 US dollars/ton (1.9%) [4] - From January to October, China imported 504.1 million tons of steel, a year-on-year decrease of 68.0 million tons (11.9%) [4] 5. Production and Inventory of Key Steel Enterprises 5.1 December 2025 - In late December 2025, key steel enterprises produced 1,807 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.643 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 11.0% [4] - They produced 1,837 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.670 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.6% [4] - They produced 2,081 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.892 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.9% [4] 5.2 Social Inventory - In late December, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 721 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 27 million tons (3.6%), a decrease of 112 million tons (13.4%) compared with late November, and an increase of 62 million tons (9.4%) compared with the same period last year [4] 5.3 Enterprise Inventory - In late December, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 1,414 million tons, a decrease of 187 million tons (11.7%) compared with the previous ten days, an increase of 177 million tons (14.3%) compared with the beginning of the year, a decrease of 14 million tons (1.0%) compared with the same period last month, an increase of 177 million tons (14.3%) compared with the same period last year, and an increase of 178 million tons (14.4%) compared with the same period the year before last [4] 6. Trend Strength - The trend strength of rebar is 0, and the trend strength of hot-rolled coil is 0 [4]