中信期货晨报20260122：国内商品期市上涨为主，贵金属、有色涨势强劲-20260122

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today's domestic commodity futures market shows a general upward trend, with precious metals and non - ferrous metals rising strongly. Lithium carbonate rises over 7%, Shanghai tin over 5%, Shanghai gold over 3%, and synthetic rubber over 3%. Most black building materials decline, with glass and caustic soda falling over 2% [13]. - The US economy maintains a "light to moderate" expansion, inflation continues to cool, and the Fed maintains a cautious wait - and - see attitude, with the interest - rate cut expectation postponed to June. In China, the consumer market in 2025 exceeded 50 trillion yuan, growing by 3.7%, and consumption in 2026 is expected to grow steadily [13]. - The scenario of no interest - rate cut in January is basically confirmed, and the first interest - rate cut by the Fed within the year is expected to be postponed to June. Short - term risk assets may continue to adjust, while in the medium - term, long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), gold, and silver are still recommended [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Fluctuations - Stock Index Futures: On January 21, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price is 4722.8, with a daily increase of 0.54; the SSE 50 futures price is 3073.6, with a daily increase of 0.09; the CSI 500 futures price is 8371, with a daily increase of 1.71; the CSI 1000 futures price is 8231, with a daily increase of 1.57 [2]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures price is 102.43, with a daily decrease of 0.01; the 5 - year Treasury bond futures price is 105.88, with a daily increase of 0.01; the 10 - year Treasury bond futures price is 108.2, with a daily increase of 0.04; the 30 - year Treasury bond futures price is 112.25, with a daily increase of 0.75 [2]. - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar index is 98.5413, with a daily decrease of 0.51; the US dollar central parity rate is 6.9602, with a daily decrease of 38 [2]. - Interest Rates: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate is 1.4948, with a daily increase of 1.76; the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield is 1.8326, with a daily decrease of 0.67; the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield is 4.3, with an increase of 12 (no daily data provided) [2]. 3.2 Popular Industry Fluctuations - On January 21, 2026, among various industries, non - ferrous metals have a daily increase of 2.91%, basic chemicals 1.08%, steel 1.06%, and so on. Industries with a decline include agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery with a daily decrease of 0.74%, defense and military industry 0.02%, and so on [5]. 3.3 Overseas Commodity Fluctuations - Energy: On January 20, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil price is 59.52, with a daily increase of 0.3; ICE Brent crude oil has a daily increase of 0.09; NYMEX natural gas price is 3.891, with a daily increase of 25.39; ICE UK natural gas price is 90.58, with a daily decrease of 1.48 [8]. - Precious Metals: COMEX gold price is 4769.1, with a daily increase of 3.78; COMEX silver price is 94.46, with a daily increase of 6.69 [8]. - Non - ferrous Metals: LME copper price is 12753.5, with a daily decrease of 1.64; LME aluminum price is 3107.5, with a daily decrease of 1.61; LME zinc price is 3175, with a daily decrease of 1.44 [8]. - Agricultural Products: CBOT soybeans price is 1053, with a daily decrease of 0.45; CBOT corn price is 424, with a daily decrease of 0.18; CBOT wheat price is 510.5, with a daily decrease of 1.45 [8]. 3.4 Domestic Commodity Fluctuations - Shipping: The container shipping price on the European route is 1222.29, with a daily increase of 1.12 [11]. - Precious Metals: Gold price is 1092.94, with a daily increase of 3.06; silver price is 23112.13, with a daily increase of 0.31 [11]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Stainless steel price is 14707.87, with a daily increase of 2.36; aluminum price is 17119.84, with a daily decrease of 0.62 [11]. - Energy and Chemicals: Fuel oil price is 2535.35, with a daily increase of 1.17; low - sulfur fuel oil price is 3083.07, with a daily increase of 0.32 [11]. - Black Building Materials: Rebar price is 3121.39, with a daily decrease of 0.48; glass price is 1046.05, with a daily decrease of 1.61 [11]. - Agricultural Products: Soybean price is 4309.61, with a daily decrease of 0.62; palm oil price is 8824.72, with a daily increase of 0.95 [11]. 3.5 Macro Highlights - Domestic Market: Domestic commodity futures market shows an upward trend, with precious metals and non - ferrous metals rising strongly, and black building materials mostly falling [13]. - Overseas Macro: The US economy maintains a "light to moderate" expansion, inflation cools, consumption shows a "K - shaped" feature, industrial production rebounds unexpectedly, and the Fed postpones the interest - rate cut expectation to June [13]. - Domestic Macro: In 2025, China's consumer market scale exceeded 50 trillion yuan, growing by 3.7%, and consumption in 2026 is expected to grow steadily [13]. - Asset Views: Short - term risk assets may continue to adjust, while in the medium - term, long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), gold, and silver are recommended [13]. 3.6 Viewpoint Highlights - Stock Index Futures: The market is boosted by dual factors, but continuous upward movement awaits incremental funds, with a short - term judgment of volatile upward movement [14]. - Options: Option market liquidity is a concern for option - covered增厚 strategies, with a short - term judgment of volatility [14]. - Treasury Bond Futures: There are still disturbing factors in the bond market, and the long - end sentiment is weak, with a short - term judgment of volatility [14]. - Precious Metals: Gold and silver are expected to show a volatile upward trend, affected by factors such as liquidity expectations, geopolitical conflicts, and the US fundamentals [14]. - Shipping: The container shipping on the European route is supported by pre - Spring Festival shipments in the near - term, and the resumption of shipping in the far - term needs attention, with a short - term judgment of volatility [14]. - Steel and Related Products: Steel products, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are expected to show a volatile trend, affected by factors such as inventory, production, and policies [14]. - Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials: Non - ferrous metals are expected to show a volatile trend, with factors such as inventory, supply, and demand affecting their prices [14]. - Energy and Chemicals: Most energy and chemical products are expected to show a volatile trend, affected by factors such as supply and demand, costs, and policies [16]. - Agriculture: Agricultural products show a mixed trend, with some products expected to show a volatile upward trend and some a volatile downward trend, affected by factors such as weather, supply and demand, and policies [16].