Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2605 are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory with a slight upward bias respectively. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line. The fundamental situation is weak, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. The production of construction steel mills is stable, and rebar supply has slightly shrunk, but the reduction is limited due to decent profit per ton. Demand has not changed much, with weekly apparent demand increasing slightly but other high - frequency indicators being sluggish and mostly at low levels in recent years. The downstream industry has not improved, and demand remains seasonally weak, dragging down steel prices. In the situation of weak supply and demand, the rebar fundamentals are weak, and steel prices are under pressure in the off - season. However, prices have fallen near the valley - electricity cost, increasing the downward resistance, and the subsequent trend will shift to low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Mysteel today [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory with a slight upward bias. The reference is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the weak fundamental operation and low - level oscillation of steel prices. The calculation of price increase or decrease amplitude is based on the closing price of the night session (for products with night sessions) or the previous day's closing price (for products without night sessions) as the starting price and the closing price of the day session as the ending price. A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, 0 - 1% decline is oscillatory with a downward bias, 0 - 1% increase is oscillatory with an upward bias, and an increase of more than 1% is considered strong. Oscillatory with an upward or downward bias only applies to the intraday view [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. Supply has slightly shrunk but the reduction is limited due to profit. Demand has not changed much, with weekly apparent demand increasing slightly but other high - frequency indicators being sluggish. The downstream industry has not improved, and demand remains seasonally weak, dragging down steel prices. In the off - season, steel prices are under pressure but have reached near the valley - electricity cost, increasing the downward resistance, and the subsequent trend will be low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Mysteel today [3].
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20260122
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2026-01-22 02:03