宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026年1月22日）-20260122

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to be volatile in the short - and medium - term, and weakly volatile intraday. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern has weakened, and the ore price is under pressure [2]. - The iron ore market fundamentals are weakening, and the ore price continues to be under pressure. However, steel mills' pre - Spring Festival restocking will provide some support, and the subsequent trend will maintain a weakly volatile operation. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term view is "volatile", the medium - term view is "volatile", and the intraday view is "weakly volatile". The view reference is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the supply - demand pattern has weakened and the ore price is under pressure [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken. Steel mill production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore has declined. The profit situation of steel mills has limited improvement, and the contradictions in the off - season steel market are accumulating, so the ore demand will remain weak. The positive factor is the pre - festival restocking of steel mills [3]. - The arrival of goods at domestic ports has fallen from a high level, and the shipments of miners have continued to decrease. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals will decline. Although the domestic ore supply has recovered, the ore supply shows a seasonal contraction. Currently, the iron ore inventory is high, the supply pressure has limited relief, and the demand is weakly stable, so the ore market fundamentals are weakening [3].