宝城期货国债期货早报（2026年1月22日）-20260122

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate, with the short - term possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut decreasing, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures being limited [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the reference view is "fluctuation and consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut decreases [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", and the reference view is "fluctuation and consolidation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. Macro - demand has resilience, but the problem of relatively insufficient domestic demand still exists, so the future monetary and credit environment still needs to be relatively loose. Policy focuses on supporting technological innovation and promoting domestic consumption circulation, also requiring a loose monetary and credit environment. With the Fed in an interest - rate cut cycle, there are still expectations for domestic monetary easing. However, the short - term urgency of a full - scale interest rate cut is weak, and the direction of monetary policy is still mainly structural, so the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited [5]