申万宏源证券晨会报告-20260122

Industry Overview - The textile and apparel industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in domestic demand in 2026, with a focus on high-growth consumption areas such as high-performance outdoor wear, discount retail, personal care, and sleep economy [9][13] - The performance of brand apparel is showing divergence, with some brands like Anta and Li Ning expected to perform well, while others may struggle [10][13] - The global tariff negotiations are stabilizing, which is not expected to affect the core manufacturing competitiveness globally [9][13] Textile and Apparel Performance - In 2025, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles in China reached 1.52 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with December showing a slowdown in growth due to warmer winter temperatures [9][10] - Textile and apparel exports from China totaled $293.8 billion in 2025, a decrease of 2.6% year-on-year, with clothing exports down by 5.2% [9][10] - Vietnam's textile exports grew by 7.0%, indicating a shift in supply chain orders due to tariff policies [9][10] Key Brands and Segments - High-performance outdoor brands like Bosideng, Anta, and 361 Degrees are recommended for investment, along with discount retailers like Hailan Home [9][13] - The children's clothing segment is expected to see stable performance, with brands like Semir and Jiaman showing slight growth [10][11] - The home textile sector is led by brands like Luolai and Mercury, with expected revenue growth of 8% in Q4 2025 [11] Non-woven Fabric Industry - The non-woven fabric sector is benefiting from quality upgrades and expanding demand, with companies like Nuo Bang and Yan Jiang expected to see significant revenue growth [11][12] - The global market for dry and wet wipes is projected to grow rapidly, with Chinese growth outpacing global trends [11][12] Global Interest Rate Impact - Recent increases in long-term interest rates in developed countries have led to global market volatility, affecting stock prices and currency values [14][15] - The geopolitical landscape, particularly actions by the U.S. in Greenland, has contributed to these fluctuations, prompting a reassessment of global asset allocations [14][15] Investment Recommendations - Companies with strong global supply chain capabilities are expected to benefit from the ongoing shifts in production and tariff impacts [9][13] - The report suggests monitoring the performance of companies in the outdoor apparel and non-woven fabric sectors for potential investment opportunities [11][12][13]