Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar support oil prices, but inventory accumulation limits the upside potential [2]. - Precious metals are likely to remain strong in the medium - term, with short - term adjustments to fix overbought technical indicators [3]. - Most commodities are expected to show a pattern of short - term fluctuations, and investors need to pay attention to supply - demand changes, geopolitical risks, and policy impacts [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - Crude Oil: The US strengthens military deployment in the Middle East. Kazakhstan's oil production may be suspended. The IEA raises the 2026 demand forecast, with reduced first - quarter supply surplus. Venezuelan exports are slow, and oil price rebound is limited [2]. - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Geopolitical factors are dominant. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported in the short - term but pressured in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has winter demand support but faces supply pressure [22]. - Asphalt: Military actions in the Middle East and oil price rebounds drive asphalt up. There are concerns about future raw material shortages [23]. Metals - Precious Metals: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated downward. The medium - term strength remains unchanged, with short - term adjustments [3]. - Base Metals - Copper: Overnight, LME copper fell. The US market premium cooled, and a short - position strategy is recommended in the domestic market [4]. - Aluminum: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate. The 23,800 - yuan level is supported, and it's advisable to wait and see [5]. - Zinc: Supply - side pressure is limited, but high prices have a negative impact on consumption. Zinc is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, with a medium - term short - selling strategy [8]. - Lead: The lead price fluctuates between 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton. Low - buying is recommended [9]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Shanghai nickel fluctuates at a high level. The negative feedback risk of stainless - steel consumption is increasing, but the short - term is still dominated by policy sentiment, and a long - position strategy is maintained [10]. - Tin: Overnight, tin prices opened high and closed low. A strategy of selling call options at a high level is recommended [11]. - Carbonate Lithium: It has risen sharply, but the downstream acceptance is low. The price is in a high - level shock, and risk prevention is needed [12]. - Industrial Silicon: The futures fluctuate. The supply reduction expectation is controversial, and the demand has no clear increase. The price is expected to fluctuate, and the implementation of major factory production cuts should be tracked [13]. - Polysilicon: The market is light. Production is expected to decline, and the futures fluctuate around 50,000 yuan/ton. Wait for the exchange's guidance [14]. - Iron and Steel - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: Night - session steel prices rebounded slightly. Rebar demand is weak, and hot - rolled coil de - stocking is slow. The market will fluctuate in a range [15]. - Iron Ore: The global shipping volume decreased, and the domestic arrival volume declined. The port inventory is increasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [16]. - Coke: The price rebounded slightly. The supply is abundant, and it is likely to follow a weak - shock pattern [17]. - Coking Coal: The price rebounded slightly. The supply is abundant, and it is likely to follow a weak - shock pattern [18]. - Manganese Silicon: The price fluctuated downward. Manganese ore prices rose, and iron - water production decreased. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [19]. - Silicon Iron: The price fluctuated downward. Affected by policies, the demand is resilient, and a short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [20]. Chemicals - Urea: The spot price is weakly stable. Production increases, demand starts, and the long - term decline space is limited [24]. - Methanol: The futures fluctuate strongly. Demand decreases, inventory accumulates, but there is support from reduced imports in Q1, and it is expected to be in a stalemate [25]. - Pure Benzene: The night - session price rose. Supply decreases, demand increases, and the short - term trend is strong [26]. - Styrene: Some domestic producers' sales are good, and the supply is tight, providing support [27]. - Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene: Supply and demand are both weak. Some markets have supply shortages, but downstream demand is weak [28]. - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC is weak, and there is a possibility of capacity reduction. Caustic soda is also weak with high inventory [29]. - PX & PTA: There is pressure in the short - term, but there are opportunities for PX processing spreads and month - spreads in Q2 [30]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply is expected to increase domestically and decrease overseas. There is a short - term inventory accumulation expectation, but improvement is expected in Q2 [31]. - Short - Fiber & Bottle Chips: Short - fiber follows cost fluctuations, and bottle - chip processing spreads have improved, but long - term capacity pressure exists [32]. Agricultural Products - Grains and Oils - Soybeans & Soybean Meal: US soybeans fluctuate strongly at the bottom. South American weather is improving, and the focus is on export and weather [36]. - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: US bio - fuel policies are positive for soybean oil. Indonesian palm oil policies are uncertain, and Malaysian palm oil supply - demand improves marginally [37]. - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: The external market rises, the domestic supply is tight in the short - term, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [38]. - Soybean No.1: The price of domestic soybeans fell. Pay attention to policy and spot guidance [39]. - Corn: The supply is relatively sufficient. The futures are expected to fluctuate, and pay attention to sales progress and auctions [40]. - Livestock and Poultry - Pigs: The futures fell for three consecutive days. The short - term rebound may end, and there may be a low point next year [41]. - Eggs: The futures fluctuate. The long - term fundamental improvement is expected, and a long - position strategy is recommended on dips [42]. - Other Agricultural Products - Cotton: US cotton fell, and Zheng cotton fluctuates at a high level. The demand is stable, and the supply reduction policy has uncertainties [43]. - Sugar: International production varies, and domestic production progress is different. The short - term price faces pressure [44]. - Apples: The futures price回调. The focus is on demand, and the de - stocking speed may be affected [45]. - Timber: The price is low. Low inventory provides support, and it's advisable to wait and see [46]. - Paper Pulp: The futures fell slightly. The demand is weak, inventory accumulates, and it's advisable to wait and see [47]. Others - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Spot prices are expected to decline, and near - term contracts have limited downside. The market will enter an observation period before the Spring Festival, and the focus of far - term contracts is the resumption of navigation [21]. Financial Instruments - Stock Index: A - share indexes rose, and the short - term trend is expected to be upward. The medium - term trend depends on the transition to profit - driven [48]. - Treasury Bonds: 30 - year treasury bond futures rose. Pay attention to potential curve - flattening opportunities and market warming signals [49].
综合晨报-20260122
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2026-01-22 02:20