格林期货早盘提示：三油，两粕-20260122

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The U.S. biodiesel policy is on the agenda, boosting global vegetable oil prices. Among the three major oils, palm oil and soybean oil have stopped falling and rebounded, while rapeseed oil has bottomed out and stabilized. Against the backdrop of U.S. interest rate cuts, with abundant global funds and strengthened inflation expectations, the financial attributes of vegetable oils will be further stimulated. It is advisable to maintain a long - term bullish mindset for soybean and palm oils and buy on dips, and pay attention to the rebound strength of rapeseed oil and hold short - term long positions. For double - meal products, the 05 contracts should be traded within a range with a bottom - oscillating mindset, and new short positions for the 09 contracts can be considered after a rebound [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs A. Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock - Three Oils 1. Market Review - On January 21, news that Indonesia revoked the licenses of 28 companies related to palm oil plantations led to concerns about palm oil supply. Palm oil led the rise in the vegetable oil sector, followed by soybean oil, while rapeseed oil was the weakest. The closing prices of major and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil had different changes compared to the previous day, with some contracts increasing in price and positions, and some decreasing [1]. 2. Important Information - On January 21, NYMEX crude oil futures rose due to supply concerns. The more actively traded March crude oil futures contract rose $0.26 or 0.4%, settling at $60.62 per barrel. - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, generally following the initial proposal and abandoning a plan to penalize imports of renewable fuels and raw materials. The U.S. EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons, close to the initially proposed 5.61 billion gallons, with final approval expected in Q1 2026. - Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the biodiesel mandatory blending ratio to 50% (B50) this year and will maintain the current 40% ratio. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from South America from April to July 2026, at 150,000 tons per month. - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for February, and the export tariff has dropped to 9%. - According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 15 were 435,882 tons, the same as the previous period. Exports to China decreased by 41,000 tons to 17,000 tons compared to the previous month. - Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel total allocation is 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters compared to 2025. The PSO total allocation decreased, while the Non - PSO total allocation increased. The B50 road test started in December 2025 and is expected to last for 6 months. The mandatory addition of B50 is expected to start in the second half of 2026, later than the market's previous expectation. - As of the end of the 3rd week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.1034 million tons, a weekly decrease of 38,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.79%, and a year - on - year increase of 5.10%. The inventory of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil had different changes [1][2]. 3. Market Logic - Externally, the U.S. biodiesel policy has pushed up the price of U.S. soybean oil, which shows a volatile and upward - trending pattern. In Malaysia, the good export data of palm oil in the first 15 days of January and the revocation of 28 palm plantation licenses in Indonesia have boosted the price of Malaysian palm oil futures. Domestically, for soybean oil, the news is mixed. Although customs have tightened the clearance of imported soybeans, the auction of old imported soybeans has been fully sold, and oil mills have sufficient soybeans for crushing, with the Spring Festival stocking still ongoing. For palm oil, the negative data from Southeast Asia has been digested, and the market is more focused on the U.S. biodiesel policy expectations, along with improved export data, which has led to a rise in palm oil prices. For rapeseed oil, the strong performance of related international oils has limited the downside, and with the market's acceptance of the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations, the downside space of Zhengzhou rapeseed oil is limited, and it mainly follows a wide - range oscillating pattern [2]. 4. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Hold existing long positions in soybean and palm oils, and slightly increase long positions in rapeseed oil. Provide support and resistance levels for major and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil. - Arbitrage trading: Exit the previously focused strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil price spread [2]. B. Double - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 1. Market Review - On January 21, the inventory of soybean meal decreased, and the prices of the two - meal futures stabilized. Technically, they entered the oversold zone and rebounded. The closing prices of major and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal had different changes compared to the previous day, with all contracts increasing in positions [2]. 2. Important Information - Since the Sino - U.S. trade truce agreement in late October, China has purchased about 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans, fulfilling the commitment in advance. - The U.S. Department of Agriculture has adjusted the global soybean outlook for the 2025/26 season, with increased production, increased crushing volume, decreased exports, and increased ending inventory. Brazil and the U.S. have increased production, while China's production has decreased. - StoneX predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the USDA's previous estimate. - As of January 16, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 1.39%, faster than the previous week and the same period last year. The harvest progress in Mato Grosso state was 6.69%, also faster than the previous week and the same period in previous years. - As of December 30, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing was 82% complete, with good growth conditions. The sowing progress of second - season soybeans was 71.9%. - Safras & Mercado predicts that Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 will be 105 million tons, a decrease from the previous forecast, and the crushing volume will reach 60 million tons, an increase from last year. - ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 will be 2.4 million tons, a significant increase from the same period last year, and the annual exports in 2026 will reach a record 112 million tons. - As of the end of the 3rd week of 2026, the inventory of imported soybeans in China decreased, the inventory of soybean meal decreased, and the inventory of imported rapeseed remained unchanged. The inventory and contract volume of imported crushed rapeseed meal remained at zero. - The auction of imported soybeans on January 13 was fully sold, with a high成交 rate and a certain成交 price. - As of January 21, the spot prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, and the basis prices also decreased. The crushing margins and soybean arrival costs are provided [2][3][4]. 3. Market Logic - Externally, the slow progress of soybean harvesting in South America has led to a rise in U.S. soybean futures prices. The strong Brazilian soybean premium and active downstream pricing and pick - up have supported the spot market, but the loose supply - demand situation and high crushing margins have led foreign investors to increase short positions. Domestically, the fixed - price of oil mills has remained stable, and the near - month basis has slightly strengthened. It is expected that the spot price will remain firm before the Spring Festival. For rapeseed meal, the negative impact of import trade of Canadian rapeseed meal has been digested, and the price has rebounded technically. The spot price adjusts with the market [4]. 4. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: The 05 contracts of double - meal products should be traded within a range with a bottom - oscillating mindset, and new short positions for the 09 contracts can be considered after a rebound. Provide support and resistance levels for major and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal. - Arbitrage trading: No trading opportunities are recommended currently [4].